Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the world’s leading indices showed growth ranging from 0.6% to 0.9%. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% by the end of the session. Most stocks on the index map were in positive territory, but mega-cap companies lagged behind the rest of the market. U.S. retail sales in February increased by only 0.2% compared to the previous month, falling short of the consensus forecast of 0.6%. The key geopolitical event today is the phone call between Putin and Trump. Bloomberg reports that the conversation raises concerns that Trump may sacrifice Kyiv’s interests in ceasefire negotiations. It is also reported that Putin has allowed some American and other Western funds to sell Russian securities. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 continues to rise after testing its 50-day moving average. The UK and the EU are considering an initiative to seize frozen Russian assets to increase joint defense spending. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index continues to rise this morning, reaching its highest level since February 2022. The OECD forecasts that China’s economy will be more resilient in 2025, as domestic policy support offsets the impact of tariffs. Global GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.1% this year to 3% in 2026. Meanwhile, Israel launched military strikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, breaking a fragile ceasefire, while China has increased military pressure on Taiwan. Oil is rising to $71.4, while gold is trading at a historic high of $3,022 per ounce.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained unchanged yesterday, while 2-year bonds rose to 4.04%. Corporate bonds showed slight growth.
KASE Index. The KASE index continues its slow growth for the fourth consecutive session, approaching a full recovery from the decline recorded on March 11.
Index Stocks. In the local market, the biggest gainer was BCC, whose stock prices rose after a local wave of declines. The nearest resistance level for the stock is at historical highs around 2,888 tenge. We have updated the target price for Air Astana shares, setting it at 1,030 tenge. On the LSE, Kaspi.kz showed the strongest growth. Yesterday, it was announced that the fintech company is preparing to issue its first $500 million bond with a five-year maturity today. Earlier, information emerged that Kaspi.kz JSC is negotiating the purchase of the Turkish subsidiary of Rabobank Group, which had $52 million in unconsolidated assets as of December. This confirms Kaspi’s strategic plans to expand into Turkey, a country with a population of 85 million and a low marketplace penetration rate. Halyk Bank rose 2.6% on the LSE, once again updating its historical high.
Currency. The dollar has been declining against the tenge for the second consecutive session. The main influence is likely the strengthening of the ruble amid expectations of a possible ceasefire, while the dollar index (DXY) remains neutral.