Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 closed neutral yesterday. Movements within the index were mixed—semiconductor-related companies saw notable gains, while major players like Apple, Tesla, and Google declined. Nvidia gained 3.7%, and Broadcom rose by 5.1%. After the market closed, all attention was on Nvidia’s earnings report. The company exceeded analysts' expectations for Q4 revenue and provided a strong outlook for Q1. However, despite an initial post-market rally, Nvidia's stock is currently down 1.5%. Investors likely found the results not strong enough, which is reflected in the muted market reaction. Regarding Trump-related news, his contradictory statements about imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico drew attention. He stated that tariffs would take effect on April 2, but later mentioned that the deadline is March 4. In Europe, markets showed a more positive trend. The Stoxx 600 rose by 1%, fully recovering from the recent local decline and hitting an all-time high. Germany’s DAX index performed well but failed to update its record levels. Reports suggest that German lawmakers may increase defense spending before the new parliament takes office next month. Asian markets also had a strong session. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged by 3.3% following news that China plans to inject at least $55 billion into its three largest banks. This plan could be finalized by June. Japanese and Chinese indices are showing moderate growth this morning. Oil is trading at $72.3 per barrel (Brent).
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries continues to decline. Meanwhile, emerging market bonds have reached their highest levels since December 12.
KASE Index
The KASE index closed neutral yesterday. During the session, quotes reached a high of 5,600 points, with a low of 5,565 points. Meanwhile, trading volume reached its highest level since February 2.
Index Stocks
The best performer yesterday was Air Astana. During the session, its stock hit 820 KZT per share, reflecting a 6% intraday increase. Trading volume reached 300 million KZT—the highest since December 20. The drop below 700 KZT in mid-February may have been seen as a "greed signal", prompting investors to buy shares at a lower price. Kazakhtelecom shares rose by 1.1%, continuing a gradual recovery after the decline from December 29 to February 10. We updated our valuation of Kaspi.kz stock following its Q4 earnings report, setting a target price of $126 per ADS. The report can be considered moderately positive, as the company set new quarterly records for revenue and profit. Additionally, Kaspi.kz met its own 2024 forecasts for revenue and net income growth.
Currency
The U.S. dollar is weakening against the tenge today. At the moment, the USDKZT exchange rate is at 502.48. In the short term, a "triangle" pattern may be forming.