Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.7%, reaching its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq lost 2.2%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index dropped nearly 3%. The market decline was driven by tariff concerns: the White House stated that Trump intends to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% levy on China starting Saturday. The U.S. also denied reports that the president plans to delay implementation by a month. Speaking on Friday, Trump announced plans to introduce tariffs on a broad range of imports in the coming months, including steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. This week, investors are anticipating earnings reports from tech companies such as AMD, Qualcomm, and Arm Holdings, which are under pressure following the launch of DeepSeek. On the geopolitical front, noteworthy developments include the intensification of negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding a critical minerals deal. In Europe, major indices did not experience the same decline as in the U.S., with the Stoxx 600 even rising by 0.5%. Private sector output in Germany increased more than expected. The country is holding early parliamentary elections. Business activity in the eurozone saw little growth in February, with the composite PMI remaining at 50.2, fueling concerns about stagnation. In France, economic activity unexpectedly contracted to its lowest level since 2023 due to weakness in the services sector. Oil prices fell below $75. This morning, Asian markets are showing mixed dynamics, but there is no clear follow-through from the U.S. index declines.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 4.43%, the lowest level since February 5. Meanwhile, corporate bonds saw little change in price, indicating increased demand for safe-haven government bonds.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by 0.4% on Friday. While this did not significantly alter the overall picture, it helped contain a potential local correction that could have developed after Thursday’s decline.
Index Stocks. The best-performing stock was Air Astana. Since February 13, its shares have gained 11.2%, returning to levels last seen on February 3. BCC rose by 1.5%. Although the stock remains within a narrow consolidation range, Friday’s gain may suggest a possible breakout. KazMunayGas shares could also see a reversal, as recent price movements have formed a daily bullish divergence. However, the realization of these technical signals could be hindered by a worsening external backdrop, particularly the impact of Friday’s S&P 500 correction. Among GDRs and ADS, the biggest decline was seen in Kaspi, which continued to fall under pressure from the U.S. market after pulling back from the $110 level. Kazatomprom has approached the lower boundary of its broad sideways channel in the $36.6–36.7 range.
Currency. On Friday, the USDKZT currency pair rose to 505.6 tenge. The DXY index gained 0.3%, although it has yet to show clear signs of a reversal. The ruble also strengthened against the dollar.