Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.5% yesterday, reaching 5,948.7 points. For context, the index's all-time high is just above 6,000 points. Nvidia shares did not drop by 2.5% as anticipated in the previous session's post-market trading. Instead, the stock gained 0.53%, even surpassing $151 during the session—an all-time high. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Gazprombank and about 50 other Russian lenders, while the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza. Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee noted that interest rates are likely to be “slightly lower” next year. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 213,000 last week, the lowest level since April. In Europe, major indices also posted gains, though none exceeded 0.8%. This morning in Asian markets, the Japanese Nikkei 225 and Korean Kospi indices are rising, while indices in Hong Kong and mainland China are down by 1-1.3%. Bitcoin briefly crossed the $99,000 mark this morning, continuing its rally following Trump’s election victory. Oil prices rose to $74.3, testing resistance at the 50-day moving average. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, crude oil prices may fall below the 2019 average.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields increased to 4.43% yesterday after the release of initial jobless claims data. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE Index rose by 0.15% yesterday. Stocks are in a local consolidation phase, which is a positive signal as it eases the tension on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This dynamic stabilizes the index and reduces the risk of price corrections after moving into overbought territory.
Index Stocks. The daily candlestick for the index formed with a significant shadow. Such a formation is often caused by the volatility of a single stock (e.g., KMG). However, in this case, two stocks—CCBN and Kaspi—showed wide price swings during the session. CCBN briefly surged to 2,099 KZT, setting a new all-time high. However, it closed much lower at 2,010.6 KZT, remaining within its sideways trend. The other volatile stock was Kaspi.kz, which fell to 53,000 KZT during the session but closed at 55,351 KZT. Earlier, the company announced dividend approval, with a record date set for November 19, so yesterday's decline may be related to dividend adjustment. Kaspi shares also declined on Nasdaq. Among GDRs, Halyk Bank posted the largest gain. Its shares are currently in a local sideways trend, with yesterday's growth bringing them closer to the upper boundary.
Currency. The U.S. dollar has been slowly weakening against the tenge for three consecutive sessions. This morning, a slight increase in the dollar to 496.5 KZT was recorded in forex trading.