External Background. The S&P 500 managed to set a new historical high for the 33rd time this year during the shortened session on July 3. The index rose by 0.5% against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic data following Powell's statements about a steady decline in inflation. The PMI index in the US services sector fell to 48.8 points in June, against expectations of 52.5. This marked the fastest contraction in the sector in the last four years. On the other hand, initial jobless claims rose to 238,000, against expectations of 235,000, indicating signs of a cooling labor market. Most Federal Reserve officials also felt that the economy is “gradually cooling” and wanted more data before lowering interest rates, as indicated by the minutes from their June meeting. The market reacted positively to this data and is now preparing for the release of unemployment figures and non-farm payroll data on Friday. Today, the US market will be closed in observance of Independence Day. On the political front, Biden stated that “no one is going to push him out” of the election race, and the White House denied reports suggesting he was considering stepping down. The results from other leading global exchanges were also positive. In Europe, indices rose by 0.6-1.2%. In France, a coalition of left-wing parties and Macron's centrists are uniting to prevent the far-right National Rally led by Le Pen from gaining a majority in the National Assembly, which has been received positively. In Asia, indices continue yesterday’s strong growth, with emerging markets adding 1.2%. Commodities are also up, with oil rising to $87.5. Hurricane Beril is expected to make landfall in Mexico on Friday.
Bonds. The yield on US 10-year bonds showed a more substantial decrease than the day before yesterday. Corporate bonds are actively regaining local positions.
KASE Index. The KASE rose by 0.2% yesterday—a modest but still a decent result. Today, at the opening, quotes are adding another 0.6% amid the revival of Kaspi.kz shares.
Index Stocks. The leader in growth yesterday was Kazakhtelecom shares. We previously noted that the growth of these stocks was slowing down; however, an unexpected price jump disproved this assumption. There were no news updates related to the company. It is worth noting that the WOSCA will take place on July 17, with the theme still unknown, and materials will be available to shareholders starting July 7 (excluding weekends). On the NYSE, Kaspi shares grew well, but this is not a new rise, rather a recovery of positions after a recent decline. The shares still need to overcome the resistance level at $136 for ADS. Kazatomprom rose by 1.1%, which gives decent signals for a rebound and growth—considering a local potential of up to 6.5% ($43.25). BCK rose to 1850 tenge, which is a resistance level—watching for a potential breakout.
Currency. The dollar is locally regaining strength and is once again attempting to breach the resistance level of 475 tenge after a brief pause. In the event of a breakout, it is worth noting that the next level is around 479-480 tenge. Further growth appears challenging to achieve.