Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 opened with gains but then reversed and closed down by 0.55%. The main trigger for the decline was news that the Trump administration plans to restrict the sale of chip design software to China. After the session ended, all eyes were on Nvidia’s earnings report — which turned out to be successful. In after-hours trading, the stock rose by 4.9%, as the company expects revenue in the second fiscal quarter to reach around $45 billion, despite new export restrictions that reduced income from China by approximately $8 billion. This helped ease investor concerns about slowing growth.
This morning brought more positive news: the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan issued a unanimous decision blocking most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, ruling they were unlawfully imposed under emergency legislation. The court gave the administration 10 days to "enforce" the ruling but did not specify what steps should be taken to repeal the tariffs. Futures on the S&P 500 responded with a 1.5% increase.
European indices fell by 0.6–0.8% yesterday, but are recovering those losses in today’s futures trading. Asian markets are also rising: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up by 1.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi are both gaining 1.9%. Oil rose by 0.9% yesterday and added another 1.5% today, surpassing the $65 per barrel mark.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.48% yesterday and reached 4.52% this morning.
KASE Index. The KASE index declined yesterday along with global markets, although the main pressure was internal — stemming from KazMunayGas shares, which dropped due to the dividend cut-off date.
Index Stocks. KazMunayGas shares fell 5.7% as investors locked in dividends. The cut-off date is from the night of May 29 to May 30 at 00:00, with a payout amount of 491.71 tenge — the same as the previous dividend. In addition, shares of KazTransOil, Kazakhtelecom, and Kazatomprom declined in the local market.
Among foreign depositary receipts, performance was worse: Halyk Bank lost 3.4% on the LSE. However, a positive note was that the 50-day moving average held as support and prevented a deeper fall. Kazatomprom dropped 3.6%, confirming signs of weakening upward momentum in the latest growth wave. It’s worth noting that the $39.4 level, which corresponds to a Fibonacci level, proved to be a strong resistance. This morning, with the market opening, the index is down by 0.4% — KazMunayGas shares are rebounding, but Kazatomprom shares continue to fall. According to QAMS, Air Astana shareholders have approved a dividend of 53.7 tenge per share, with the record date set for June 24 at 00:00.
Currency. The dollar failed to hold above resistance levels on the USDKZT chart yesterday and lost ground. The tenge strengthened to 508.7 per dollar.