Our comments and expectations
External background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 again updated historical highs and showed growth. Nevertheless, the quotes closed near session lows, as the entire second half of the trading day was in decline. The sectors of technology, banking, energy and communications grew mainly. Netflix made an important contribution to the growth of the latter, which jumped by 10.7%. Microsoft briefly reached a market valuation of $ 3 trillion. Economic news shows that US business activity increased in January to the maximum in seven months, and the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.3. GDP is expected to rise by 2% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2023. Weekly jobless claims are projected to rise to 200,000 from 187,000, and durable goods orders likely slowed to 1.5% in December. Yesterday's session was quite successful for the European market – the Stoxx 600 jumped by 1.2%, the DAX added 1.4%. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged today. Instead, the focus is on Christine Lagarde's press conference and any fresh signals about the prospects for a rate cut. The Hong Kong index has been growing for the third consecutive session, adding 8% during this time. Prices of industrial metals, including copper (+2.4%), jumped after China announced plans to stimulate its economy, which should allow Chinese banks to step up lending and purchase government bonds. Against this background, as well as after the news of more significant reductions in oil reserves in the United States, Brent rose above $ 80.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds rose to 4.18% yesterday. This rise allowed the quotes to break through the 50-day moving average up again.
The KASE index. The KASE index rose 0.2% on Wednesday, which can be called some stabilization after a decline a day earlier. The quotes were relatively more volatile, while the trading volume reached its highest since December 27.
Index shares. The largest growth was seen in KMG shares. We have already noted that quotes have been volatile lately. Due to yesterday's growth, the shares have updated historical price highs, which are now at around 12,150 tenge. The largest decrease was in KEGOC securities. It is noteworthy that these stocks have been declining for the fifth consecutive session, and the amount of losses has increased every subsequent day. Halyk Bank's LSE GDR rose 1.1% - this is affected by the presence of support in the form of a 50-day moving average. Kazatomprom also tested a similar resistance level yesterday and bounced up, despite the overall negative result for the session.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar rose to 446 tenge. Today, growth continues, but at a more modest pace (+0.1%). There has been a noticeable discrepancy with the DXY index since January 16.
Key market news
(=) KSPI: JSC Kaspi.kz provided information in English about the closure of the initial public offering in the United States