AltynGold PLC has published its full-year 2025 results. The company continues to demonstrate growth across all financial metrics driven by increased production, the processing plant reaching its design capacity of 1 million tons per year, and higher gold prices. Revenue, EBITDA, net profit, and free cash flow reached record highs, while profitability margins continued to improve. In our valuation model, we have revised our gold price forecasts upward, accounted for a reduction in net debt, and slightly increased expected ore production levels. As a result, our target price for AltynGold PLC shares is GBP 14.9, implying a 32% upside. Recommendation: Buy.
Key valuation drivers. The primary factor is the favorable gold price environment: the average realized gold price in 2025 was $3,474 per ounce, while at the time of reporting gold is trading around $4,600 per ounce, which is 32% higher than the annual average and provides a foundation for revenue growth in 2026 even with stable production volumes. The second catalyst is the potential expansion of processing capacity at Sekisovskoye from 1 million to 2–2.5 million tons per year, enabling gold production to exceed 100 thousand ounces in the medium term. The third factor is the advancement of the Teren-Say project toward obtaining a production license by the end of 2026, with ore potentially processed at the existing plant without additional capital expenditures on new infrastructure. The key risk is the limited срок of the Sekisovskoye mining license, which expires in 2029: without extension or timely launch of Teren-Say, the terminal value in the DCF model will be significantly constrained. The second risk is the decline in gold grade from 2.29 to 2.05 g/t and the increase in AISC to $1,562 per ounce (+19% YoY). This reflects the transition to full capacity and inflation in contractor services, and further declines in grade may accelerate cost growth. Additionally, the company plans to invest $95 million in 2026–2028, which, combined with debt repayment, may limit dividend potential in the next 1–2 years.
(+) Record revenue and production. Revenue in 2025 reached $175.4 million, up 82% year-over-year. Growth was driven by two factors: the average gold price increased by 42% YoY to $3,474 per ounce, while gold sales volume rose by 30% YoY to 50.4 thousand ounces. The company mined 23% more ore (926 thousand tons), produced 44% more gold (53.9 thousand ounces), and processed 63% more ore (967 thousand tons) compared to 2024. Annual production exceeded management’s target of 50 thousand ounces. Gold grade declined from 2.29 to 2.05 g/t.
(+) Continued margin expansion. Gross margin increased from 51% to 55%, while EBITDA margin rose from 53% to 58%. Cost of production grew by 67% YoY, mainly due to higher contractor services, depreciation, and mining tax expenses. AISC increased from $1,318 to $1,562 per ounce, while operating cash costs rose from $992 to $1,252 per ounce. However, this increase was more than offset by higher gold prices, resulting in EBITDA growth of 99% YoY to $101.4 million and net profit rising to $62 million, or $2.27 per share (+135% YoY). Free cash flow increased 4.6 times, allowing the company to fund $19.8 million in capital expenditures and repay $23.6 million in net debt, reducing net debt by 2.7 times.
Our view. The company delivered strong full-year 2025 results, setting new records. We expect further improvement in 2026 driven by higher gold prices and management’s production guidance of 52–55 thousand ounces. In our valuation model, we have increased gold price forecasts, reduced net debt assumptions, and slightly raised production estimates. As a result, our updated valuation for AltynGold PLC stands at GBP 14.9 per share, implying a 32% upside from the current market price. Recommendation: Buy.