Our Comments and Expectations
External Background
On Friday, the S&P 500 declined, and this drop affected other global markets as well. Investors were concerned about tariff-related issues after former U.S. President Donald Trump stated during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that he plans to introduce "retaliatory tariffs that will affect everyone" this week. However, Trump did not specify which countries would be targeted or what measures would be taken, promising to reveal details later at a press conference on Monday or Tuesday. Another source of pressure on financial markets was inflationary economic data. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, which was significantly below expectations. However, average hourly earnings unexpectedly rose by 0.5%.
A University of Michigan survey indicated that consumers expect faster price growth next year, considering Trump's tariff policy. Consumers forecast inflation of 4.3% per year, which is 1% higher than last month’s projection. In Europe, major indices declined by 0.3–0.5%. Bloomberg reports that the gap between Stoxx 600 and S&P 500 valuation multiples has reached historic highs. In Germany, industrial production fell by 2.4% in December, performing worse than expected and reaching its lowest level since mid-2020. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but remain in a downward trend. Meanwhile, copper prices reached their highest levels since October 2024.
Bonds
Rising inflationary pressure is making it difficult for the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, pushing 10-year bond yields up to 4.49%.
KASE Index
On Friday, the KASE index rose by 0.5%, mainly due to an increase in Bank CenterCredit shares. However, the index remains in a local downtrend overall. The nearest resistance level is around 5,500 points, aligning with the December 2024 lows. The total trading volume decreased to KZT 1.3 billion, compared to nearly KZT 6 billion on Thursday.
Stocks in the Index
Top Gainer – Bank CenterCredit, whose stock rose by 4.1%. This rebound helped recover losses from Thursday and part of Wednesday, hinting at a possible end to the local correction. Shares of Halyk Bank, Kcell, and Kaspi also showed gains. Technically, HSBK shares have the highest potential for recovering local positions on KASE. Biggest Decliners – Kazakhtelecom and Air Astana. On the LSE and Nasdaq, the worst performer was Kazatomprom, though it did not significantly impact the broader market. The stock failed to break above the 50-day moving average and remains within a formed sideways trading channel.
Currency Market
The Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) has strengthened against the U.S. dollar for the fourth consecutive session, driven by increased demand for the national currency ahead of tax payments. The dominance of internal factors over external ones is confirmed by the divergence in the USDKZT exchange rate and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).