Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 was closed yesterday due to the celebration of Presidential Day. At the same time, E-mini futures for the index showed a slight decrease of 0.3%. Swaps estimate a Fed rate cut of about 90 basis points in 2024 — from more than 150 basis points in early February. An important event from the corporate sector should be Nvidia's report on February 21 after the market closes. Mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto will also report. Goldman raised the S&P 500 target to 5,200 points due to increased profits. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 grew for the fourth consecutive session, but slowed down. The British FTSE 100 rose 2.9% in 4 sessions. Asian markets are opening lower. The Korean Kospi is currently down 1.2%. China's commercial banks are expected to reduce their rates on 1-year and 5-year loans to 3.4% and 4.1% from 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively. This is assessed positively for the Chinese stock market, but it does not affect trading this morning, since the market is in the red by 0.3-0.4%. In addition, trading was somewhat disappointed in the first sessions after the Lunar New Year, from which growth was expected against the background of positive data on travel and tourism during the holidays, which suggested an increase in consumer activity in a country where deflation is becoming an economic problem. Oil shows a slight increase in the morning to $83.5 per barrel of Brent.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds today is 4.3%.
The KASE index. Hints of a slowdown in the growth of the index were immediately dispelled by the Bank CenterCredit. Quotes rose by 9.7% yesterday and are rising by 6% since the market opened.
Index shares. The growth of CCBN securities occurs without any noticeable news triggers for this, however, based on the history of price growth, such a trading characteristic is not new for BCC. The only thing is that yesterday the analysis of STB deposits was published on the ranking website.kz based on the data of the National Bank dated January 31. At the same time, it can be noted that prices have reached the level of August 2008. On the other hand, Kcell grew, which added +2.1%, but did not go far from recent consolidation levels. Halyk Bank showed growth on the LSE, but did not go above $16.4.
Currency. Today, the dollar shows a steady movement against the tenge and is growing by 1%. We consider this an important point, since we have already indicated that after February 15, the dollar may begin to grow. This month, tenge support due to transfers from the National Fund is low (about $200 million in net currency sales), while the tax period is already passing through its peak. We believe that an upward breakdown of the 50-day moving average and a subsequent breakdown of 455 tenge may be signs of a weakening of the tenge in a seasonally weak March. On the other hand, do not forget that the dollar sales from the National Fund will be for the entire current year, which will still support the tenge.
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