Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% after two consecutive sessions of decline. The gains were driven primarily by mega-cap and tech sector stocks. It was reported that Nvidia’s market capitalization briefly reached $4 trillion. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index now signals “Extreme Greed,” indicating strong bullish sentiment.
More tariff news came from Trump: this time, he announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting in August — a sharp increase from the 10% imposed in April — citing “gross injustice by the current regime,” which accuses the country’s former president of attempting a coup. Trump also set a date of August 1 for the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper, following a “firm national security assessment.” This slightly weakened the U.S. dollar.
The published Fed minutes revealed disagreement among officials regarding the outlook for interest rates, largely due to differing assessments of tariff impacts. In Europe, indices rose: the Stoxx 600 bounced off its 50-day moving average, while the DAX climbed 1.4% and hit new highs. This morning, futures on European indices are up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures are down 0.25%. In Asia, indexes are mixed — South Korea’s Kospi is the strongest performer, rising 1.6% and hitting its highest level since 2021.
Brent crude is trading slightly above $70 per barrel. According to the EIA, U.S. crude inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels last week — the largest weekly gain since January. Citi reports that OPEC+ may return at least 1 million barrels per day to the market over the next three months due to rising demand.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped sharply following a recent wave of gains. Emerging market bonds have begun to recover.
KASE Index. The KASE index continues to defy all negative forecasts and is trending upward. Yesterday marked the eighth consecutive session of growth. In just over a month, the index has gained nearly 11%.
Index Stocks. Three key stocks contributed to the index’s rise yesterday — BCC, Kcell, and KazMunayGas. Kcell realized all the growth signals that emerged after surpassing the 3,360 tenge mark. The next resistance level is around 3,480 tenge.
BCC continues its strong rally, up about +66% since the start of the year, possibly making it the most profitable stock of the year once again. Meanwhile, KazMunayGas stock hit new all-time highs, surpassing the previous peak on June 23. Notably, these highs don’t align with crude oil peaks ($77 on June 23 vs. $70 today).
On the LSE, the biggest drop was in Air Astana shares, though there were no major changes in the technical picture. Uranium prices continue to decline, which could affect Kazatomprom stock in the coming sessions.
Currency. This morning, the USDKZT is trading at 518.2 tenge. No significant changes in the technical picture are currently observed.