Our Comments and Expectations
External Environment. The S&P 500 fell by 1.8% yesterday. The technology sector, mega-cap companies, as well as the industrial and energy sectors, were all in the red. Trump announced that Mexico and Canada would not be able to reach an agreement on deferring tariffs, which were due to come into effect on Tuesday, effectively negating the hopes that arose the day before after Mexico's initiative. Later, the White House stated that Trump signed an executive order to double the tariff on China to 20%. Additional pressure on the market came from economic data: the US manufacturing PMI (ISM Manufacturing) dropped to 50.3 points in February, down from 50.9 points in the previous month, signaling a move towards stagnation. The consensus forecast had been 50.5 points. The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) rose by 16% yesterday, closing at 22.7 points, the highest since December 20, 2024. On the geopolitical front, Trump ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine, which increased criticism of President Volodymyr Zelensky. In Europe, there was a solid rise: the Stoxx 600 surged by 1.1%, and the DAX rose by 2.6%. Both indices, along with the British FTSE 100, reached historical highs. Bloomberg notes that this rise is part of a rotation of international investments from the US towards the European region. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 1.5% this morning. In commodity markets, oil dropped to its early December levels. OPEC+ announced that it would continue its plans to restart halted production.
Bonds. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds continues to decline as investors move to safer assets. Corporate bonds fell by 0.6-0.7%, which also equated them to risky assets.
KASE Index. The KASE Index closed up by 0.3% yesterday. Overall, the market had a routine session, with the sharp rise in CenterCredit Bank’s shares standing out.
Index Stocks. CenterCredit Bank (BCC) surged by 4.2%, updating historical closing highs. The Bank has set the date for its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for April 4, and now investors are awaiting information about dividend distribution plans. Air Astana fell by 1.3%, confirming the resistance level at 800 KZT. The local rebound of KazMunayGas (KMG) shares stalled due to the drop in oil prices. Kazakhtelecom closed neutrally but showed volatility during the session, ranging between 44,000 and 46,000 KZT. The second-highest increase was seen in Kaspi, which rose by 1.1%. However, its ADS on Nasdaq fell by 1.6% due to the overall market correction in the US but remained above the support level of $103. The negative technical outlook remains for Kazatomprom's shares, which on KASE have fallen to levels last seen on October 14, 2024.
Currency. The tenge is trading at 499.2 per dollar this morning. The US dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.8% yesterday. The ruble has remained stable against the dollar for the second consecutive session. Notably, the Unified Pension Fund (ENPF) will begin buying US dollars for its portfolio again, but the purchase volume in March will not exceed $250 million.