Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 started September with a decline, living up to its reputation as the weakest month for the U.S. market. The main pressure came from European bonds, whose yields rose amid renewed concerns over developed countries’ budgets. The VIX volatility index closed at 17.16 but rose to 19.38 points during the session. U.S. manufacturing activity data for August showed a contraction for the sixth consecutive month: the ISM index stood at 48.7, while the group’s industrial production index fell to 47.8, returning to contraction territory. Toward the end of the week, investors await the labor market report: Bloomberg’s median survey forecast suggests about 75,000 new jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. Among corporate news, Google shares jumped 7.1% after the market closed — following a federal judge’s ruling that the company is not required to sell the Chrome browser. In Europe, indices fell sharply: the Stoxx 600 dropped to its lowest since August 7, and the DAX lost 2.3%, returning to its lowest since August 1. Negative factors included eurozone inflation accelerating to 2.1% and mounting pressure on U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to manage the budget. In Asia, indices moderately declined, except for South Korea’s Kospi. Futures on the S&P 500 are showing a 0.1% gain in intraday trading. Oil prices rose and are trading at $68.8 per barrel this morning.
Bonds. U.S. Treasury yields rose in tandem with European bonds: in the U.K., long-term yields reached their highest since 1998, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield approached 5%.
KASE index. The KASE continues to grow after breaking above 7,000 points, though yesterday’s positive momentum was driven solely by BCC shares, with no significant gains among other leading stocks. This picture remains unchanged at today’s market open.
Index stocks. Yesterday, BCC shares gained 6.1%, and today they added another 5.2%. Alongside CCBN, Kazatomprom shares also rose (+0.5%), though much more modestly. On Nasdaq, Kaspi ADS fell 3%, likely under pressure from negative sentiment in the U.S. market, while GDRs of Halyk Bank and Kazatomprom each lost 1%. All these signals indicate that the overall market picture is moderately negative or neutral, with the main growth driven by the strong dynamics of Bank CenterCredit shares. We also updated our valuation of KazTransOil shares, raising the target price from 1,040 to 1,110 tenge after a moderately positive Q2 report: quarterly revenue grew and reached new records amid tariff increases, while oil transportation volumes remained unchanged.
Currency. In the morning, the dollar reached the upper boundary of the “flag” pattern on the USDKZT chart, and a breakout could signal further strengthening of the dollar. The National Bank announced yesterday that it plans to sell $400–500 million in September.