External background. The US stock market closed neutrally on Friday, although the processes taking place against the background were stormy. As we noted earlier, the focus was on the US employment report, according to which the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector increased by 272,000, exceeding forecasts, and wages accelerated. The unemployment rate has increased to 4%. It is noteworthy that the reports preceding Friday's (JOLTS, ADP) gave hints of a weakening of the labor market, but Non-farm payrolls was able to surprise investors. Despite the fact that the S&P 500 index closed with minimal price changes, the report hurt bonds, and swaps now no longer take into account the Fed's rate cuts until December. Citigroup and JPMorgan, which had forecast rate cuts in July, changed their forecasts after the report to September (Citi) and November (JPMorgan). European markets also closed with a moderate decline, with the Stoxx 600 losing 0.2% and the DAX 0.5%. In the commodity market, the bears “walked” through the quotes of copper, which fell below its 50-day moving average. Gold experienced a similar situation, which fell by 2.8%
Bonds. The US 10-year yield rose sharply to 4.43% after the US employment data. Recall that it declined for 6 consecutive sessions, breaking through its 50-day average downwards. Emerging market bonds have declined markedly from corporate bonds. The DXY dollar index has recovered all its losses since May 30.
The KASE index. The sideways trend continues in the local market. On Friday, the KASE index rose by 0.2% and remained in local consolidation. Recall that starting in April, KASE entered a sideways trend in the form of a triangle, and in the last 6 sessions it has shown the most neutral dynamics.
Index shares. The largest increase on Friday was registered in Kaspi securities. In general, they look good and have reached their highs since April 8, when the shares fell by 11% in 2 sessions. To date, the recovery to the levels of 60,000 tenge continues. On the NYSE, ADS decreased by 1.4%, but this, in general, did not have a strong impact on the stock quotes. Kcell grew by 1%, without affecting the technical picture. Kaztransoil added 0.6%, however, an interesting point here is that the quotes thus completed a post-trend decline.
Currency. The dollar closed neutrally on Friday, although it declined during the session to 446.6 tenge. Against the background of the growth of the dollar index DXY, we assume its slight strengthening against the tenge today.
Key market news
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