Our Comments and Expectations
External background. U.S. stock markets ended last week with growth, once again updating historical highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.49% and 0.72%, respectively. Most sectors showed gains by the end of the day. FedEx shares gained 2.3% after quarterly revenue and profit exceeded analysts’ expectations. Apple also added 3.2% following a target price increase from JPMorgan. Another important development was the U.S. Senate’s rejection of a short-term funding bill, which increased the likelihood of a government shutdown. S&P 500 futures are showing neutral results this morning. In Europe, the broad Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2%, partly due to declines in energy companies. We note the 25-basis-point rate cut in Norway and the approval of Germany’s 2025 annual budget, which sharply increases government spending and investment in the economy. In Asia this morning, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 1%, while South Korea’s Kospi is up 0.6%. At the same time, the Hang Seng is down 1.1%, and China’s CSI 300 shows a slight decline. Oil prices fell 1.3%, possibly due to demand concerns and the overall state of the global economy. The dollar index continued to rise, but still remains in a medium-term downtrend.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds continued its gradual rise, reaching 4.13%.
KASE index. On Friday, the KASE index fell 0.9%, largely due to Halyk Bank’s dividend cutoff. Still, several stocks also declined, but index quotations did not break below the local trendline support.
Index stocks. The main driver of the decline was Halyk Bank shares, with the shareholder register for dividend entitlement to be confirmed tomorrow. The bank will pay additional dividends of 21 tenge per share, with total dividend yield before the gap reaching 13.5%. We also note a 2.1% drop in Kazatomprom shares, which eliminated the price premium of KASE compared to GDRs on the LSE. Meanwhile, Kaspi showed the largest decline in international markets — down 2.3%. In our view, the downtrend has not yet been broken to confidently state a full reversal in price dynamics. Air Astana shares fell 0.8% but remain above the local upward trendline. Moreover, trading volumes were again higher than usual, so we maintain a positive short-term outlook for the stock. The only issuer to show growth was KazMunayGas, whose shares added another 1.6%, renewing historical highs. Over the past six trading days, the stock has gained nearly 11%. However, the more likely scenario now is a local correction from the upper trendline boundary, which quotations failed to break through on Friday.
Currency. On Friday, the dollar rose by 0.35 tenge and continues to test the 542 tenge level, where a major seller likely remains.