Our comments and expectations
External background. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose by 1.5%, once again обновив historical highs. Oil prices dropped below $97 after trading near $110 the previous day. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that the ceasefire that began about a month ago remains in effect. On Thursday, S&P 500 quotes pulled back slightly, although the cumulative result over the two sessions remained positive at +1.1%, despite worsening conditions in the Persian Gulf. Reports indicate that the U.S. intends to resume its initiative of escorting distressed vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which had been suspended earlier this week. There are also reports of missile exchanges in southern Iran. In the labor market, initial jobless claims rose slightly after declining the previous week to levels close to multi-decade lows, indicating that layoffs remain restrained. Employment data due on Friday are expected to show the first consecutive double monthly increase in job creation in nearly a year. In Europe, indices posted stronger gains than the S&P 500 on Wednesday, but declined more sharply yesterday and continue to fall by 0.8–1% today. Asian markets are moderately negative this morning. Futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.3%. Oil is currently trading around $101.
KASE Index. KASE index quotes declined on Thursday. Most stocks closed in negative territory, while the largest decline was shown by KEGOC following its dividend cutoff. During the session, quotes fell to 7,789 points and are repeating this dynamic at today’s opening.
Index stocks. Overall market sentiment appears moderately negative amid a strong tenge, external uncertainty, volatility in GDRs/ADSs, and ongoing dividend cutoffs. KEGOC posted the steepest decline, losing 4.6% and dropping below levels seen before the dividend rally. Most likely, the main wave of selling has already passed, although the stock may still show moderate downside. On Western exchanges, the largest losses were recorded by Kazatomprom and Halyk Bank. HSBK GDRs remain within a local downtrend channel, although there is a fairly strong support level around $33. Kazatomprom has also reached local support levels around $83.8, where the stock found support and resumed growth at the end of April. Today on KASE, Kaspi.kz shares are down 1.5%, despite ADS gaining 2.9% over the previous two sessions. Currently, the most stable growth in the market is being demonstrated by KazTransOil shares, which have risen for five consecutive sessions with a cumulative gain of +7.5%. Considering the breakout above the local downtrend line and the recent tariff increase, this creates a positive signal for further growth.
Currency. Under pressure from horizontal and downward-sloping resistance levels, the dollar is falling today to 461.7 tenge. In the near term, quotes may test recent lows near 455.5 tenge.