Our Comments and Expectations
External Background: The S&P 500 index was unable to set a new historical high for the fifth consecutive time. The index dropped by 0.2%, which can be attributed to the anticipation of key US employment data for November. Yesterday, the "warm-up" for investors came with the US jobless claims report, which increased more than expected, reaching 224,000 last week. Today's report is expected to show an increase of 218–220 thousand non-farm jobs in November, recovering from the impact of two hurricanes and a completed strike that had lowered October's figures. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Swap contracts indicate a 65% implied probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed this month. Wells Fargo predicts that the S&P 500 will reach 7007 points by the end of 2025. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices continued their rally, rising by 0.4–0.6%. Both indices have risen for six consecutive sessions. Emmanuel Macron announced that he will finish his term and appoint a new prime minister in the coming days. Chinese indices are showing growth this morning, fueled by expectations of economic stimulus: the CSI 300 index is up 1.3%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng is up 1.4%. At the same time, the South Korean Kospi is down by 0.5%, as President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea may face impeachment – the ruling party is trying to block it. Oil is trading at $72. OPEC+ has postponed its production increase for the third time, as the oil market faces an oversupply, which is pressuring prices. The group will start increasing production in April instead of January, and at a slower pace. Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 yesterday but has fallen back to $98,000 today.
Bonds: The yield on US 10-year bonds remained almost unchanged yesterday, as did the prices of major ETFs on corporate bonds.
KASE Index: The KASE index did not pause yesterday, unlike the US market. The index continued its growth for the sixth consecutive session, similar to the movements in European indices.
Index Stocks: Most stocks in the index showed moderate, yet broad-based growth. The largest gain was seen in Kaspi.kz stocks. Yesterday, ADS shares tested an important medium-term downward trendline that started in July this year but failed to break through it. Air Astana rose 0.5% on the local market, reaching 830 tenge, which is the previous local high and resistance level. The National Bank stock continues to rise, ignoring the formation of bearish divergences. HSBK shares remain some of the most attractive on the market in terms of profit generation relative to company value (P/E ratio – 3.5x). Meanwhile, the rally has stalled for BCCK shares, as they failed to break the 2200 tenge level and have moved into a sideways consolidation.
Currency: The dollar has weakened by 10 tenge this morning. USD/KZT quotes dropped from 523.96 (yesterday's close) to 514 (at the moment). This is a locally positive sign, indicating a step towards restoring balance between demand and supply.