Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% yesterday, driven mainly by mega-cap companies. Nvidia led the gains, adding 4.9% even before releasing its financial results. Recall that the IT giant and key supplier of AI chips will report today after the U.S. market closes (late at night). According to Barclays, options trading suggests that Nvidia's results on Wednesday will serve as the most critical catalyst of the year—more significant even than the Federal Reserve's December meeting. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 16.3 points amid heightened geopolitical factors. Yesterday, it was reported that Ukraine launched its first strike on Russia’s rear areas using ATACMS long-range missiles, previously banned by the U.S. In response, Putin approved a new nuclear doctrine. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell to its lowest level since August 13. Germany's DAX index is holding within a local sideways trend but is close to breaking below its 50-day moving average. This morning, Asian markets show relatively neutral dynamics: Japan is down 0.3%, South Korea is up 0.4%, and Chinese indices are near the zero line. Oil is trading at $73.3 per barrel this morning, with industry reports indicating a rise in U.S. crude oil inventories ahead of official data releases. Gold continues to rise for the third consecutive session, although the pace of growth has slowed.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes dropped to 4.37% yesterday amid increased demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Emerging market bonds saw solid gains.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by 0.6% yesterday, marking a strong upward movement. Prices closed at historical highs again, and some of our local concerns proved unfounded. However, looking at the daily chart, a bearish divergence is forming on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Index Stocks. Yesterday’s top performer was Halyk Bank. Notably, HSBK shares are now moving almost identically to the KASE index, and a bearish divergence is also forming here. Overall, negative technical signals may recede if the stock moves into a sideways trend (more likely) or continues rapid growth (less likely). Kazatomprom rose by 1.5%, now matching its GDR price. There were no significant changes on the London Stock Exchange; however, uranium ETFs continued their rally on U.S. exchanges. Other GDRs and ADSs showed no notable movements up or down. Today, it was announced that Turkey’s antitrust authority approved Kazakh fintech company Kaspi.kz’s acquisition of 65% of the leading Turkish e-commerce platform Hepsiburada.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar pulled back from the 499 KZT level and began to strengthen after the National Bank announced the reinstatement of the requirement for state companies to sell 50% of their foreign currency earnings. The DXY index closed lower for the third consecutive session.