Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.
U.S. stocks ended in negative territory again. The S&P 500 fell by 1.4%, hitting new lows since September 2024. Media reports indicate that Trump is escalating trade wars, threatening to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages from France and the EU if Brussels introduces a tax on American whiskey exports — itself a response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin advised investors not to overreact to the ongoing stock sell-off and not to underestimate the risks of a U.S. recession. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-over-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and below expectations of 3.3%. Core PPI came in at 3.4%. The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 220,000 from 222,000, better than the forecast of 225,000. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices posted more modest declines and remain above key support levels.
Asian markets are showing growth this morning — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 2.3%, and China’s mainland CSI 300 index has reached its highest level this year. S&P 500 futures are rising by 0.6% amid reports that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer decided not to block the Republican bill, thus preventing a government shutdown. Oil is trading at $70.4 per barrel, recovering from yesterday’s decline.
Bonds.
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries declined after two days of gains, while high-yield corporate bonds fell to their lowest levels since January 13.
KASE Index.
The KASE index once again ended yesterday’s session flat. At today's market open, shares of Kazatomprom, Kazakhtelecom, and Air Astana are showing growth.
Index Stocks.
The biggest decline yesterday was seen in Air Astana shares. As we noted earlier, the stock has entered another corrective wave and at one point fell to 704 tenge but was later bought back. As of this morning's trading session, Air Astana shares are up 1.4%, though this doesn't yet change the overall technical picture.Halyk Bank shares rose 1.9% on the local market, breaking out of a sideways trend, while GDRs on the LSE fell 1.4%, slightly retreating from historical highs. There was also a slight decline in Kazatomprom GDRs on the LSE, despite gains in the local market. Interestingly, on the daily chart, Kazatomprom shares (KZAP) are currently forming a bullish divergence, which is a positive signal and makes them attractive for portfolio buying after a prolonged decline.
Kazakhtelecom shares continue to rise, while KazMunayGas has entered a pause mode.
Currency.
The U.S. dollar is sharply strengthening against the tenge, which has failed to break below the 485 per dollar level. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) is growing moderately, and the ruble is strengthening, indicating that the tenge’s weakness is caused not only by external but also by internal factors. This may be due to the seasonal weakness of the national currency in March.