Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 1% yesterday, recovering to levels on October 4. On the index map, shares of technology companies were again among the growth leaders. Energy sector securities fell amid a pullback in oil prices. The VIX declined after reaching its highest values since September 6 a day earlier. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that rate cuts should be cautious and data-based. Rafael Bostic said that although the risks to inflation have decreased, the threats to the labor market have increased, despite the fact that the economy is still strong. Meanwhile, investors are preparing for the publication on Thursday of monthly inflation data for September and the first reports for the third quarter from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Friday. Data from the US producer price index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index will also be released at the end of the week. In Europe, the leading indexes declined, the British FTSE 100 lost the most – 1.4% at once. In Asia, there has been a slight increase in the Japanese market since morning, but the Chinese market continues to decline. The losses of Hong Kong's Hang Seng are not as significant as yesterday (-9.4%), and currently amount to 1.6%. The mainland CSI 300 is losing 6%, against the background of yesterday's growth of 5.9%. Brent crude oil has been trading at $77.5 per barrel since morning. It is reported that the Hezbollah leadership supports the idea of a ceasefire with Israel. Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds formed a bearish candle yesterday, rolling back after the previous growth. This may indicate a possible further decrease in profitability. The KASE. KASE index yesterday negated the results of the three-day growth that the index showed over the previous three days. The reasons for the local weakness could be oil volatility, rising yields on government bonds of large economies and the weakening of the tenge. Index shares. Kazatomprom shares showed the largest decline yesterday, which also became anti-leaders on the LSE. Nevertheless, we have already noted that such a movement is explained by the wide scope of the side channel in which the GDR is currently located. After declining for two consecutive sessions, the quotes are again approaching the lower boundary of the channel and the long-term upward trend line. Kaspi has been declining for the fourth session in a row and is also quite close to its local support levels. It is noteworthy that the AIRA GDR reached the level of $6.4-6.5, which, in our opinion, may become the bottom for securities, below which quotations will not fall in the medium term. Currency. The dollar is moving up in an ascending channel against the tenge. Today, USDKZT touched the 489.5 mark, which is the upper limit of the channel and the resistance level for further growth of the US dollar. Given that the DXY dollar index has begun to form a downward divergence on the 4-hour chart, its growth may slow down in the coming sessions. We are watching.