Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The U.S. market and most global exchanges were closed on Friday due to the celebration of Good Friday. Meanwhile, strong labor market data were released while markets were closed: in March, the U.S. economy added 178 thousand jobs, exceeding market forecasts, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%. Futures on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined, pushing their yields higher, as a strong labor market reduces the room for a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve, especially amid rising energy prices and increasing inflationary risks. In China, a weaker services PMI was released on Friday: growth in the services sector continued but slowed noticeably, indicating weakening external and domestic demand. On the oil and geopolitical front, OPEC+ on Sunday agreed only to a symbolic increase in production quotas for May — by 206 thousand barrels per day. The market perceives this more as a political signal “for the future” rather than a real solution to supply issues. There were also reports of a tanker carrying Iraqi oil and a container ship reportedly linked to France passing through the strait, though so far these appear to be isolated signs of a partial restoration of shipping activity. Nevertheless, Reuters reports new Iranian strikes on petrochemical facilities in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, as well as tougher rhetoric from Washington. This morning, reports emerged that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to the final resolution of the conflict. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%, while the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices have gained 1.2%. Oil prices rose early in the morning but have since retreated to $109.7 per barrel for Brent.
KASE Index. The picture in the Kazakh market has not changed significantly so far: the KASE index rose by 0.4%, while the AIX Qazaq Index declined by 1.52%. Quotes of both benchmarks remain in a sideways consolidation.
Index stocks. The biggest gain on Friday was shown by Air Astana shares, which rose by 2.1%. The stock has entered its first pause in an attempt to recover from the decline seen in March. Given that oil prices are not rushing to fall, the local consolidation may last for several more sessions. Kaspi shares ranked second in terms of growth; however, from a technical perspective nothing particularly notable was observed in this movement. Shares of BCC and KEGOC have now moved into a tight sideways trend in the local market. Recently, consolidation has been observed in the shares of KMG, Kaspi, Kazatomprom, Kazakhtelecom, and KazTransOil. On Western exchanges, depositary receipts of Halyk Bank, Kazatomprom, and Kaspi are currently trading in wider and more volatile sideways channels. HSBK GDRs are currently the closest to breaking through important resistance levels.
Currency. The dollar declined for the fourth consecutive session on Friday. USDKZT quotations began testing the support level around 470 tenge, and this morning they are falling even lower — to 469.2 tenge per dollar. If the level holds, the next support range for the U.S. currency lies within 464–465 tenge.