Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% yesterday. After the middle of the trading session, quotes moved lower and accelerated the decline into the close. On the index map, nearly all sectors were in the red, while only a few mega-cap companies stood out with gains: Nvidia, Tesla, Google, and Netflix added 1–2%. No specific triggers for the decline were observed; however, market participants noted weakness and a lack of positive news. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s PCE deflator report (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index), which likely increased 2.9% y/y last month. Following Powell’s dovish speech in Jackson Hole, expectations for policy easing changed only slightly: prior to his remarks, the market priced in a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which has now risen to 85%. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak. FOMC member Lisa Cook stated she would not resign following President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove her, reigniting concerns about the Fed’s independence. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices fell comparably to the S&P 500. In Asia, indices are in the red today, down 0.5–0.9%. Futures are showing declines of 0.1% for the S&P 500, 0.6% for the DAX, and 0.4% for the Stoxx 600. Oil rose to $68.2 yesterday but is correcting to $67.8 today. Uranium dropped 2.4%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.5% yesterday. Corporate bonds corrected after Friday’s strong rebound.
KASE Index. The KASE gained 0.8% yesterday. Most likely, the quotes marked the lower boundary of a local sideways trend forming on the index chart. We expect the market to continue rising in the coming sessions, but at a slow pace or with pauses.
Index Constituents. The largest growth yesterday came from Halyk Bank shares, reflecting Friday’s rally on the LSE. The UK market was closed yesterday, so today’s pricing will be shaped by GDRs after the LSE opens. Considering that European index futures are declining, GDRs will likely correct today as well. Investor attention may again shift to BCC shares, which rose yesterday and are gaining another 1.6% today. However, it should be noted that the quotes have not yet shown strong technical breakouts, and the key resistance level lies higher — in the 4,690–4,750 tenge range.
Currency. The dollar weakened further yesterday, and quotes broke downward from the triangle pattern. This is a positive technical signal for the tenge, which may now strengthen toward 531–532 per dollar. This level corresponds to the upper boundary of the consolidation phase briefly observed in late July.