Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday and Monday (a holiday for the Kazakh market), external markets showed negative performance. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose after Powell assured that the U.S. economy is in good shape. U.S. job growth stabilized last month, reaching 151,000 in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, presenting a mixed picture for the labor market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell by 2.7%, returning to levels seen on September 16, 2024, while the Nasdaq dropped sharply by 4%. The VIX volatility index surged to levels last seen in August 2024. The main concern remains the endless flow of news about tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy. Citi downgraded U.S. stocks and upgraded Chinese stocks, citing the declining uniqueness of the U.S. market for global investors. Tesla shares plunged 15% after analysts lowered their sales forecasts for the current quarter. Going forward, traders are focused on upcoming U.S. job openings data. In Europe, the DAX fell 3.4% over two sessions. Nevertheless, technically, the situation here is softer than for the Stoxx 600, which, despite a smaller drop, reached its lowest point since February 11. In Asia, indices are recovering the losses made at the beginning of the session. According to Bloomberg, U.S.-China trade talks have reached an impasse as both sides failed to agree on further steps. Brent crude oil is trading at $69.4 per barrel.
API CEO Mike Sommers said at CERAWeek that the oil industry is confident it will be granted exemptions from Trump’s tariff policy. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.25%.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined for the first time after four consecutive sessions of growth. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. Once again, the KASE index is opening under pressure from external markets. On Friday, quotes closed flat, continuing a slow rebound; however, today trading started with a 1.8% decline.
Index Stocks. On Friday, KMG and Kazatomprom remained the growth leaders. The market showed almost no reaction to the unexpected and negative factor of the base rate hike by 125 basis points. Today, trading opened with notable volatility, with a drop reaching -1.8%, mainly due to strong fluctuations in KMG shares. KMG quotes dropped as much as 7%, but at the moment are showing only -0.4%. The main pressure was on Kaspi.kz shares — being listed on Nasdaq, which plunged 4% yesterday, Kaspi could not avoid a decline in its ADS. Kaspi quotes fell 4%, dropping slightly below their 50-day moving average. The largest gain was recorded in Halyk Bank's GDRs.
Currency.
The dollar is trading at 489.4 tenge this morning, with the next support level at 485.6 tenge. Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index has entered the oversold zone and is forming a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart.