Our Comments and Expectations
External Environment: The S&P 500 closed neutrally on Friday and rose by 0.4% on Monday. Thus, the main U.S. stock market index continues to stay in a local consolidation near its historical highs. The growth leaders were the largest companies in the index — Amazon (+2.4%), Google (+3.6%), and Tesla (+6.14%). The latter notably surged after the Cybertruck model received approval for energy consumption from Chinese regulators, which was an important step toward the start of sales. According to S&P Global, service sector activity in the U.S. grew at its fastest pace since October 2021 in December, while manufacturing further declined. Trump stated that Ukraine must reach an agreement to end the Russian invasion, downplaying the value of occupied territories. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $47,000 — a new record — amid optimism over MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. JPMorgan believes that Trump's return will stimulate an increase in currency trading volumes. While the U.S. market grew, all other major global indices showed declines. Stoxx 600, DAX, and FTSE 100 all dropped by -0.6%, as Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, paving the way for early elections on February 23. The Bank of France revised down its 2025 growth forecast to 0.9%. In Canada, the finance minister unexpectedly resigned due to disagreements on how to prepare for Trump's tariffs. Asian markets saw moderately negative trading in the morning. Chinese authorities signaled stronger stimulus measures to boost consumption, but economists doubt these will be enough to restore balance in the country's economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. is preparing an investigation into China’s outdated chips.
Bonds: The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds reached 4.4%, matching the level of November 22, amid the recovery wave.
KASE Index: The KASE index had an unsuccessful session on Thursday, with quotations down by 0.7%, reaching their lowest levels since December 2. This decline indicates that the local correction wave, which began on December 11-12, is still ongoing and remains in force.
Index Stocks: The largest drop was seen in the shares of the People’s Bank of Kazakhstan, which reflected the dividend gap on the LSE. Earlier, we noted that the 5.3% drop was excessive, and now we observe a rebound in GDRs by 3.2%. According to TradingView data, the quotations during the session rose to $20.65. ADS Kaspi shares continued to decline, losing 3.6% over the last two sessions. A similar pattern is observed with Kazatomprom, which is heavily dependent on sentiment in the U.S. market. Noteworthy news includes the meeting between President Tokayev and the leadership of Power International Holding — the buyer of Altel/Tel2 from Kazakhtelecom. The company announced on its official website that the deal will be closed in January 2025, which is quite soon. Investors may also be preparing for news regarding dividends.
Currency: The dollar rose to 524.8 KZT on Forex and has reached its previous highs set on December 4.