Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%. The rally was primarily driven by technology stocks, particularly semiconductor manufacturers. Shares of Intel, AMD, and Micron surged by 5–11%, helping the Nasdaq advance by 0.8%.
A positive catalyst for the market was the news that Iran would cease its remaining military operations against Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stated that Israel would halt attacks on Iran, while warning that strikes on Beirut would follow any further attacks by Hezbollah.
Market sentiment was further supported by Citigroup strategists, who raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,700 to 8,100 points following a “significant increase” in earnings expectations. On the other hand, Bank of America warned investors that it may be time to “take profits” on U.S. equities.
Meanwhile, investors remain focused on the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which Bloomberg reports has attracted substantial oversubscription. At the same time, OpenAI has confidentially filed for an IPO, while Anthropic made a similar filing a week earlier.
European indices posted moderate declines. Germany’s DAX lost 0.6%, while German factory orders fell by 3.8% in April compared with March, exceeding expectations for a decline, largely due to weaker demand for automobiles.
Sentiment in Asia improved this morning. South Korea’s Kospi, which plunged 8.3% yesterday, is rebounding by 8.2% today. S&P 500 futures are trading 0.2% higher, while oil is trading at $93 per barrel. Citi lowered its three-month target price for gold from $4,300 to $4,000 per ounce.
KASE Index. The KASE Index declined by another 0.7% yesterday. However, we expect quotations to stabilize today amid improving sentiment across global markets.
Index constituents. Kaspi and Kazatomprom remain the main laggards. However, the uranium producer’s GDRs showed signs of stabilization yesterday. The shares fell to $67.9, where they encountered strong support from the 200-day moving average, and are currently stabilizing in the $71–72 range.
Kaspi, meanwhile, continues to trade within a negative trend and is now in its eighth consecutive session of declines. Nevertheless, we expect the selling pressure to ease in the coming sessions, with the potential formation of a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart.
The strongest performer yesterday was Bank CenterCredit (BCC), whose shares continue to move gradually higher. So far, only early signals suggest a possible breakout from the prolonged sideways trend. The key resistance level remains at KZT 4,850.
Following the company’s first-quarter results, we slightly lowered our target price for KazMunayGas shares from KZT 41,700 to KZT 39,100 while maintaining our Buy recommendation. We view the report as neutral: net profit nearly doubled year-on-year, and both revenue and EBITDA demonstrated solid growth. However, the improvement was driven primarily by higher oil prices, while operational performance during the quarter remained relatively weak.
Currency. USD/KZT is attempting to rebound today following a recent decline and a short period of consolidation. The exchange rate has reached KZT 491.6 per U.S. dollar, where it is encountering local resistance that has not yet been overcome.