Our comments and expectations
Global background. The S&P 500 had a volatile session yesterday — opening lower but gradually recovering by the end of the day. Once again, trade tensions acted as the main trigger for market volatility.
Investor attention then shifted to Jerome Powell, who noted further weakening in the labor market, which in turn lifted expectations for future rate cuts. Swap contracts are currently pricing in about 125 bps of rate cuts by the end of next year from the current 4–4.25% range.
In Europe, major indices declined by 0.4–0.6%.
Meanwhile, chip equipment maker ASML reported stronger-than-expected order intake of €5.4 billion, supported by growing AI infrastructure investments. The company also plans to announce a new share buyback program in January. Following this, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4%.
Asian markets traded higher: Hong Kong, China, Japan, and Korea indices advanced between 1.5% and 2.7%.
Brent oil is trading at $62.2 per barrel, while gold continues to rise despite broad market optimism.
KASE index. The KASE index fell for the third consecutive session, losing 0.5%. Technically, prices slipped slightly below the lower boundary of the sideways channel, though this move is not yet critical. To stabilize the technical picture, a modest 0.3–1% rebound would be sufficient today.
Stocks. KazTransOil shares dropped 3.9%, likely undergoing a correction after a 6.2% gain between September 22 and October 3. Trading volumes reached 22.3 million tenge.
Bank CenterCredit fell 1.9%, remaining under pressure from a descending trendline.
The only stock showing notable growth was KazMunayGas (KMG), supported by a weaker tenge.
Air Astana GDRs in London dropped 6.5%, erasing previous gains, though closing at $6.48, which keeps the medium-term outlook constructive.
Kaspi.kz fell another 1.1% on Nasdaq. We attribute the decline to its expansion into Turkey and higher capital expenditures in a market with low marketplace penetration. Investors’ focus remains on the upcoming Q3 earnings report.
Currency market. USD/KZT continues to rebound from medium-term support levels, trading near 540 tenge per dollar.
Meanwhile, the ruble is strengthening against the U.S. dollar, and the DXY index is undergoing a mild correction after its recent rally.