Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a large pharmaceutical company with strong positions in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and immunology. The main growth driver is its GLP-1 class drugs (Mounjaro and Zepbound), which have become a key source of accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion. The company is also developing an innovative pipeline, including the oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron, which could significantly expand the obesity and diabetes treatment market.
Investment attractiveness factors:
· The launch of oral GLP-1 represents a new catalyst for growth acceleration and market expansion. The commercial launch of oral GLP-1 (Foundry) could become the main catalyst for LLY. Following expected regulatory approval in April, the company will be able to enter a new GLP-1 segment with a more convenient oral format compared to injectable alternatives.
We expect the launch to outperform competing oral GLP-1 solutions, including Wegovy, due to strong clinical efficacy comparable to injectables and significantly greater convenience. This expands the potential patient base, reduces treatment barriers, and may accelerate GLP-1 penetration across broader obesity and diabetes populations.
· GLP-1 drug sales continue to reach record highs, and the current growth is far from over. In Q1 2026, Mounjaro sales reached $8.6bn (+125% YoY), significantly exceeding even the most optimistic market expectations. The quarter also marked a leadership shift, with the drug becoming the world’s best-selling pharmaceutical, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda.
Based on IQVIA data for April and the first half of May, we expect further acceleration in Q2 and new record highs. We estimate that in 2026, Mounjaro revenue could reach ~$35bn (+55% YoY), while Zepbound sales may exceed $19bn (+43% YoY). Given patent protection until at least 2036 and limited competition, we expect Eli Lilly and Company to remain a key beneficiary of the rapidly growing obesity and diabetes treatment market.
Target price: $1300