Our Comments and Expectations
External Background
The S&P 500 and several major global exchanges were closed on Friday. Today, the stock exchanges of the UK, Germany, and Hong Kong are closed in observance of Easter. S&P 500 futures are currently showing a decline of 0.8%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to its lowest level since April 2022.On Friday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stated that former President Trump, disappointed by the Federal Reserve’s refusal to lower interest rates, is considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against undermining the regulator’s independence, noting that most economists agree the central bank must remain independent of politics to function effectively. French Finance Minister Éric Lombard said firing Powell would undermine confidence in the dollar and could destabilize the U.S. economy. This morning, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 1.2%, South Korea’s Kospi is slightly up by 0.1%, and China’s CSI 300 is gaining 0.4%. This week, investors are focusing on early U.S. tariff talks. China warned other countries against striking deals with the U.S. that could harm Beijing’s interests and threatened retaliatory measures. Oil is down 1% this morning, trading at $67 per barrel, while gold continues to rise amid a weakening dollar, approaching $3,400 per ounce.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is trading at 4.36% this morning, showing a rebound following the decline observed from April 14–16.
KASE Index
The KASE Index rose by 0.3% on Friday. Quotes moved slightly above the local support level of 5,530 points. The next resistance level is near local highs—around 5,600 points.
Index Stocks
Many stocks showed price fluctuations in the range of 1.3–1.5% on Friday. Among the gainers were Kaspi.kz, Kazakhtelecom, Halyk Bank, and KazTransOil, while Air Astana and Kazatomprom posted declines. Looking at individual performances, Kazakhtelecom showed the strongest technical growth—its stock reached 49,600 tenge, the highest closing price since 2007. The company’s AGM is scheduled for May 15, and materials will be available to shareholders from May 5. Also noteworthy is the rise in KazTransOil shares, which may be a response to the announced dividend recommendation of 86 tenge—a figure close to our forecast of 82 tenge. The AGM is scheduled for May 22, though the record date has not yet been announced. Additionally, a semi-annual dividend recommendation of 81 tenge was published for KEGOC, which also matches our forecast. The record date is May 28, and the AGM will take place on April 28.
Currency
The U.S. dollar is trading at 521 tenge this morning, continuing to show growing divergence from the DXY index, which is steadily declining. The ruble has strengthened to 80.9 against the dollar and 6.43 against the tenge. The euro has reached 600 tenge.