External background. Over the weekend, the S&P 500 was able to rise by 1.7% or above the level of 5,200 points in the Kazakh market. Along the way, the quotes also broke through the 50-day moving average. Now, about 0.8% is missing to reach the historical highs of the beginning of April again. One of the last positive moments for the market was the data on the labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, exceeding estimates of 212,000 and the previous result of 209,000. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that rates are currently holding back the economy, but it may take "more time" to bring inflation back to its target. Meanwhile, a survey conducted by 22V Research shows that investors are almost divided in their opinions about the next 10% movement of the S&P 500: 52% are betting that the benchmark indicator will go higher, and 48% see a downward movement. In Europe, quotes also rose, the Stoxx 600 reached historical highs, showing growth for 6 consecutive sessions. Similar All-time-high indices are shown in Germany and the UK. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 2.3% this morning, continuing its rally after breaking through the medium-term downward trend. At the same time, the growth is much more modest on the charts of the indices of Japan, Korea and mainland China. Oil is growing after a decline at the end of April and is trading at $84.4 in the morning.
Bonds. The decline in 10-year yields in recent weeks has led them to test the lower limit of their ascending channel. In a survey by 22V Research, 68% of those surveyed by the company said that next year the yield on 10-year bonds will drop to 4%, while only 32% said 5%.
The KASE index. KASE showed a neutral session on Monday. At the current stage, we assume that the market will be positively influenced by our foreign securities, which have grown during the weekend at KASE.
Index shares. At the previous and at the beginning of the current session, the People's Bank is among the growth leaders. The growth is most likely due to the approaching date of the dividend cutoff, which will take place on March 15. However, investors should keep in mind that due to the trading regime of T+0, a dividend correction of shares may begin as early as the next session. On the LSE, quotes rose by 2.9%, but the chart shows that they are stubbornly held back by the boundary of the trend line. Kaspi is growing on the NYSE, with support for the 50-day moving average from below. As we noted in previous reviews, ADS needs to break through the $123 level to be able to retest the highs around $135. Kazatomprom grew the most of all GDR, by 4.5% at once. For him, the resistance lies at $43.25. Only the GDR Air Astana remained without significant movement.
Currency. Tenge strengthened to 439.6 per dollar in the previous session. Now we are watching the market's reaction to the test of an important support level for the US currency.
Key market news
(=) HSBK: On May 20, the conference of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan JSC on the announcement of financial results for the first quarter of 2024 will be held