Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 ended yesterday’s session in neutral territory. The hourly chart shows that prices dipped after Powell’s speech but partially recovered by the close. Following the expected 25-basis-point rate cut, the Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech, casting doubt on the possibility of further policy easing in December. He emphasized that additional rate cuts are “far from predetermined,” noting divisions among Fed members.
In corporate news, Meta shares fell 7.4% in after-hours trading after the company projected higher expenses for next year. Microsoft also declined as its data center spending exceeded Wall Street expectations.
From trade updates, it’s worth noting that the U.S. and South Korea signed a new agreement. In Asia, moderate declines are observed this morning — Chinese and Hong Kong indices are in the red. S&P 500 futures remain neutral. Oil is trading at $63.9 per barrel. According to EIA data, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.86 million barrels last week due to reduced supplies from the Gulf of Mexico.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.06% yesterday, while corporate bonds weakened following Powell’s remarks.
KASE Index. KASE fell 0.2% yesterday. Based on the dynamics of most stocks, the local market remains under pressure — likely due to falling oil prices, the higher base rate, and sanctions against Lukoil. Nevertheless, some stocks still have local growth triggers. The index is currently consolidating just above the 6,930-point level.
Index Stocks. Kazatomprom shares led the gains yesterday, effectively preventing a deeper decline in the KASE index. Prices rose 2.4% on the local market and 6.1% on the LSE — enough for the GDRs to not only recover their previous losses but also reach new record highs. Interestingly, by the end of yesterday’s session, local shares were trading 3.5% cheaper than on the LSE, which could stimulate upward movement in today’s session.
Air Astana GDRs also climbed to their highest level since October 4, 2024, while ordinary shares are consolidating after a rally.
As expected, Kaspi.kz shares saw the steepest decline, mirroring the ADS performance on Nasdaq. The current move doesn’t worsen the technical picture — it has simply shifted from positive to neutral. Halyk Bank shares fell 1.1%, hitting their lowest since August 12, which looks negative, though GDRs remain in a sideways trend and show greater stability. The 1.2% decline in KazMunayGas shares had little impact on their technical setup.
Currency. The USDKZT pair dropped below 526 yesterday but closed around 528.4. Today, the dollar is showing slight gains, trading near 530.