Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 declined by 0.21% yesterday, although it showed growth during the session and even updated historical highs once again. The industrial Dow Jones had a similar high update, which overcame the important psychological mark of 40,000 points. Of the individual stocks, Walmart can be noted, which rose by 7% after an optimistic forecast. Bloomberg data shows that analysts have raised profit forecasts for the current quarter at the fastest pace in two years. Presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York John Williams and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Thomas Barkin, speaking separately on Thursday, said that inflation may take longer to reach the 2% target. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indexes declined yesterday, and are also losing up to 0.3% at the open and futures. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.9%, continuing the rally that began on April 22. At the same time, the Korean Kospi and the Japanese Nikkei 225 show a decline. Copper declined by 1% yesterday, giving hints of a pause in growth.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds rose yesterday after falling markedly the day before. Despite this, quotes remain below important resistance levels, which is locally good for both the bond and equity markets.
The KASE index. KASE declined by 0.4% yesterday, which is not critical and, in general, confirms the formation of a triangular formation on the chart. The GDR and ADS showed themselves most noticeably yesterday.
Index shares. Halyk Bank lost 2% on KASE and grew by 3.8% on its GDR chart. The result is quite good, given the recent dividend cutoff, which confirms our expectations that the negative effect of fixation will not be excessively painful. However, there is a small catch – yesterday's growth did not allow quotes to break through the 50-day average. Nevertheless, in our opinion, now is the right time to re-purchase shares in the medium term. ADS Kaspi increased by 2.4% and rehabilitated after the day before yesterday's decline. The most interesting situation in Kazatomprom is that it has grown above the resistance level, but it will be important to consolidate the securities at the current level. Probably, the quotes are starting to feel the support of buyers who are aiming for dividends. Recall that the date of fixing dividends is scheduled for May 27 when they are approved at the AGM on May 23.
Currency. Today, the dollar shows an increase of 0.6% to 443.7 tenge. This is a locally noticeable trend, but the US currency still has restraining factors for further growth – the 50-day moving average, which now stands at 445.5 and the horizontal resistance at 446.4 tenge.
Key market news
(=) Oil: CPC facilities are operating normally after the drone attack on Novorossiysk - Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan