Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 1.23% on Friday, after just over 2 years, updating historical highs for the first time. The technology sector, in particular the semiconductor subsector, has once again become the main driving force, as hopes for a rally of AI companies have rekindled in the market. The market was also supported by economic data: according to a report from the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index in the United States rose to 78.8 points in January from 69.7 in December. This is the maximum level since July 2021. The average forecast of analysts was at the level of 70 points. At the same time, inflation expectations among the population for the coming year in January fell to 2.9% compared with 3.1% in the previous month, which is the lowest in three years. There are 2 main candidates left in the US election race after Ron DeSantis withdrew from it and supported Trump. The candidacy of the ex-president may cause an increase in the dollar and government bond yields due to his tariff and tax plans. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index remained above the 50-day moving average. The FTSE 100 was neutral, the DAX rose 0.5%. This morning, the Chinese market continues to fall: Hong Kong's Hang Seng is losing 2.2%, the mainland CSI 300 is losing 0.4%. Oil is trading at $78 today, under pressure from the 50-day moving average. Libya is reportedly resuming oil production and exports at its Sharara field after it was shut down for about three weeks.
Bonds. The growth of yields on 10-year US government bonds slowed on Friday after a test of resistance levels. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
The KASE index. KASE fell 0.2% on Friday. The slowdown could have started earlier, but in the session before last it was “masked” by the growth of Kcell shares. We have already mentioned earlier that the market is likely to complete the current wave of growth and move into a local sideways trend against the background of an increase in the relative strength index of the RSI above 80 points. This pattern of movement is quite typical for the index in the last year and a half, while it is in an uptrend.
Index shares. Today, the main downside risk comes from our GDR with the LSE, which declined quite noticeably on Friday. Kaspi lost 4.7% on the LSE, which may have been due to the placement on the US market. Trading began on NASDAQ on Friday, Bloomberg shows that the quotes closed at $95.97, which is $3.5 higher than the opening price. Kazatomprom also declined by 4.7%, having lost advantageous technical positions in three sessions. Between $43.3 and $44.15, we expect to see support that can contain the decline. Meanwhile, uranium has frozen at $106 and has not shown significant growth for 3 consecutive sessions. The People's Bank went deeper down from the $15 mark. At $14.26, the support level of the 50-day moving average is now passing.
Currency. The dollar continues to move downwards in a downtrend. Recall that the announced volume of sales of US currency from the National Fund in January was at the level of $ 1-1.1 billion, which should have had a noticeable effect on the market.
Key market news
(=) KSPI: JSC Kaspi.kz provided information in English about the price of the initial public offering in the United States