External Background.
Yesterday, U.S. Big Tech stocks experienced significant declines after the release of inflation data for June. The Nasdaq index fell nearly 2%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.9%, and the Dow Jones index increased by 0.1%. Tesla shares were particularly hard hit, dropping by 8.4% following news of a delay in the launch of its robotaxi service by a couple of months. Conversely, small-cap stocks showed substantial growth: the Russell 2000 index rose by 3.6%, indicating a rotation of investors into smaller stocks amid positive inflation data. In June, year-over-year inflation fell to 3%, and monthly inflation turned negative for the first time in four years. As a result, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from 74% to 90%. Against this backdrop, European stocks also performed well, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.6%. However, Asian markets displayed mixed reactions this morning. The Hong Kong Hang Seng rose nearly 2%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 2% and Korea's Kospi dropped by 1.2%. Gold prices showed a solid increase of nearly 2% in light of the rising likelihood of a rate cut, while oil prices reacted with a slight increase of 0.2%.
Bonds.
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes significantly decreased yesterday, falling from 4.28% to 4.21%.
KASE Index.
The KASE index rose by 0.2% on Thursday, with a number of stocks showing significant opposite movements. KMG and BCK continued to rise, Kazatomprom regained lost ground in London, and other GDRs on foreign markets also exhibited solid growth, which may impact today’s trading.
Index Stocks.
KazMunayGas shares showed growth again yesterday, although it was more modest at 1%. Nevertheless, the quotes reached a new historical maximum of 13,460 tenge. Trading volumes this time were not as high as on Wednesday, but the scenario of local growth toward 13,800 tenge remains relevant. Another leader of the day was BCK, whose shares briefly rose to 2,090 tenge on a small transaction. However, the price fell back below the psychological level of 2,000 tenge, and breaking through this level could open up new opportunities for local growth. We also note Kazatomprom’s return on the LSE to the $40 level and the overall growth of our stocks on foreign markets. Air Astana GDRs rose by 3.2% yesterday and may positively influence today’s stock prices, which are 5.2% lower than the GDRs. On the other hand, we observe the continued decline in Kcell quotes, which reached 2,950 tenge, marking the lower boundary of a prolonged sideways range. If it drops below this level in the next few trading days, we may see a more significant decrease in Kcell’s value. There was also a slight pullback in Kazakhtelecom shares, which fits into the current growth trend.
Currency.
On Thursday, the dollar continued its pullback, which began on Wednesday, reaching a level of 474.9 tenge by the end of trading on KASE. The main scenario for the coming days remains a local sideways movement of the exchange rate in the range of 475-478 tenge per $1.