Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 1%. Almost all sectors in the index showed growth, though mega-cap and tech companies outperformed industrial stocks. One of the main catalysts for the stock market rally was the decline of the U.S. dollar and the rise in Treasury bond prices after Trump signed a measure imposing reciprocal tariffs on every country. The President also announced additional import duties on cars, chips, and pharmaceuticals. Previously, Bank of America warned that U.S. tariffs could ultimately weaken the dollar if other countries responded with countermeasures. Additionally, Trump stated that he had a 1.5-hour phone call with Putin, but a face-to-face meeting will not take place until high-ranking officials gather in Saudi Arabia next week.
U.S. jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 213,000. Markets are now awaiting retail sales and industrial production data for January, which will be released on Friday. European indices also showed growth. Stoxx 600 has gained 10.2% since December 20, while DAX has risen by 14% over the same period.
In Asia, market trends were mixed this morning—Hong Kong stocks were up, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 0.8%.
Oil is trading at $75.1, and copper is at its highest level since May 2024. The IEA (International Energy Agency) expects the global oil surplus to shrink to 450,000 barrels per day this year—a 50% reduction in just two months—due to strong demand growth in Asia and sanctions on OPEC+ countries.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries declined after a sharp rise the previous day. Corporate bonds also saw notable growth.
KASE Index. The KASE index posted its best daily increase since January 10 yesterday. This has led to a test of the downward trendline from the last decline wave, which began on January 24.
Stock Index. As expected, Kaspi led the local market, with its stock price increasing by 4%. However, the movement did not stop there—ADS shares jumped another 6.4%. The stock is experiencing a classic breakout through trendlines and moving averages, signaling a bullish sentiment. However, the exact trigger for this surge remains unclear, as recent news about the company has been centered around a major shareholder’s acquisition of Jusan Bank and ongoing lawsuits—both of which have been known for some time. Additionally, Halyk Bank saw solid gains on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) yesterday, though no major changes in the technical picture were observed. A positive factor is that GDRs remain above the 50-day moving average, which could allow for a rebound without significant resistance if new catalysts emerge.
Currency. The U.S. dollar failed to hold the 500 KZT level yesterday and is trading at 494.75 KZT this morning. In addition to the tax period, geopolitical factors are also playing a role, as the ruble is strengthening, and the DXY dollar index is declining.