Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 fell 1% yesterday, again largely due to technology and mega-cap stocks. In addition to the ongoing correction amid resurfaced concerns about returns on AI investments, sentiment was further pressured by a breakthrough from Chinese startup Moonshot following the launch of the Kimi K3 model, which called into question the leadership of U.S. companies in artificial intelligence. Alibaba shares also rose notably after the release of the Qwen3.8 Max model, which the company called second in capability only to Anthropic Fable 5. Against this backdrop, Apple managed to overtake Nvidia and become the world’s most valuable company. Netflix shares declined after the company cut its sales growth forecast for the second quarter in a row. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early July to a five-month high amid lower gasoline prices. U.S. manufacturing stalled in June due to a drop in durable goods output. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should consider raising interest rates if inflation does not decline in the near term. This morning in Asia, performance is mixed: South Korea’s Kospi is down 4.5%, while Chinese and Hong Kong indices are rising. Michael Burry said the Hong Kong stock market offers attractive investment opportunities after lagging the global AI-driven market rally. Oil is rising today to $89.7 ($91.5 at the peak), the highest level since June 11. S&P 500 index futures are slightly higher today, up 0.15%.
KASE Index. On Friday, the KASE index rose 0.6%, and at today’s open it is adding another 0.5%. Despite this, a test of resistance levels—where the boundaries of the current consolidation lie—has not yet begun.
Index stocks. We believe that despite the prolonged sideways trend in the local market, investors should consider the possibility of increased volatility once it ends. The current market consolidation is a narrowing triangle, which after bullish price action typically points to a continuation of the trend. However, if we look at the dynamics since the beginning of 2026, the pattern increasingly resembles a “diamond” formation, where the previous upswing (from late November to late January) instead creates bearish signals in the market. The market leader was Halyk Bank shares, which jumped on news of a recommended second dividend payment this year. Total payments will amount to 58.2 tenge, which, based on Friday’s closing price, corresponds to a 15.3% dividend yield and matches our expectations. Air Astana shares also rose 1.5%, reaching their highest levels since April 21. KazTransOil added 1.3%, though the technical picture did not change. At today’s market open, HSBK is up another 1.9%, while KZTO is down 0.9%.
Currency. USDKZT remains above the 470 tenge level at the time of writing, although during the session it climbed to 473.6 tenge. The ruble continues to weaken against the dollar and has nearly reached its lowest levels since June 26.