Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% yesterday amid a notable sell-off in shares of semiconductor manufacturers, computer-peripheral makers, and IT services providers. Most other sectors were in the green: while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the semiconductor stock index dropped 4.3%, the Dow Jones declined only 0.2%. The main pressure on technology companies is still coming from wavering investors concerned about whether large-scale investments in artificial intelligence will justify elevated company valuations. In addition, reports say the U.S. has intensified strikes on Iran. The attacks have continued for a fifth consecutive day, including against oil tankers near Iran’s main export terminal. Earlier, Tehran shelled U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan. Meanwhile, Fed officials delivered hawkish comments: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank should consider raising interest rates if inflation does not ease in the near term, while noting that monetary policy is currently in a good place. Lorie Logan called for a “moderate increase” in rates, while Jeff Schmid said inflation is “too high” and has been above the target for too long. Sentiment in Asia’s tech sector is negative again this morning: the Hang Seng, which had been on a growth wave, is down 2.1%, the Nikkei 225 is losing 4%, and the Kospi is closed after yesterday’s 6.4% drop. Oil has stalled after reaching its 50- and 100-day moving averages. S&P 500 index futures are down 0.8%, signaling what may be a difficult session in the U.S. today.
KASE Index. In the overall picture, there are still no changes on KASE. However, interesting dynamics can still be observed in individual names.
Index stocks. Yesterday, Kaspi on Nasdaq fell 2.2%, although during the session it attempted to renew highs since May 29. Overall, the decline is not critical, as prices remain above local support levels, and the stock is moving in a sideways trend below the resistance level slightly above $90. A more significant decline was seen in Kazatomprom GDRs, which still failed to hold above support levels and moved below them. Today, the quotes are down another 1.7% and are falling toward the next Fibonacci support level at $64.4, worsening the technical picture and continuing the downtrend that has lasted since the end of April. Halyk Bank is showing interesting dynamics today—quotes on the LSE are up 2.8%, and if the close is not below $31.5, this will be a technical signal of moderate strength. To form stronger signals, the GDRs need to rise further and break out of the consolidation range. The catalyst for the rise was news of the recommendation of a second semiannual dividend payment in the amount of KZT 28.09, with the EGM date set for August 20.
Currency. The USDKZT pair is also beginning to consolidate: yesterday the dollar closed slightly below KZT 471, and today trading is around KZT 470.5. As we previously assumed, most likely the quotes will shift into a sideways trend in the coming sessions.