Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. Over Friday and Monday, the S&P 500 added 0.2%: Monday’s 0.7% gain offset the prior decline. Investors are preparing for big companies’ earnings and the Fed decision, while technology stocks remain volatile. On Monday, oil pulled back on hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and diplomatic talks, although attacks on Saudi Arabia kept supply risks in place. According to the table, over two sessions Brent fell 2.1%, to $110.7. Europe’s Stoxx 600, DAX, and FTSE 100 gained 0.2–0.5%. The yield on US 10-year Treasuries rose 4 bps to 4.99%, and the dollar index strengthened 0.4%.
KASE Index. KASE fell 0.38% on Friday after losing 0.34% on Thursday. Overall, across the two sessions the index’s technical picture did not change materially. However, there is one important observation: price movement now looks more like a local rising channel, or flag. This may be a negative signal, as a rising flag after the September 10–28 price drop is most often a bearish formation. However, for such a scenario to play out, the index would need to quickly fall below 7800 and then 7770 points, which does not yet look like an obvious outcome.
Index constituents. The main pressure came from BCC and Kaspi, while gains in Kazakhtelecom and KazMunayGas partially offset losses. During the session the index dipped to 7822 points, but recovered part of the decline by the close. Turnover in index stocks doubled to KZT 1.87 bn. The 50 bp cut in the base rate to 15.75% was not accompanied by a broad equity rally: buying remained selective. Market leader was Kazakhtelecom, which got a specific corporate catalyst for buyers’ interest — the development of computing infrastructure together with NVIDIA. Following Jensen Huang’s Friday visit, plans to expand the company’s capacity were presented, including Data Center Valley. The first 50 MW data center is planned to be launched in Q2 2027; according to the company, the 215 MW capacity of the project’s first phase has already been reserved. This is a meaningful positive backdrop for the stock, although some details were published after trading ended, so it would be premature to attribute the entire Friday gain directly to them. Kazatomprom added about 1.2% over the two sessions, but the overall picture still did not change. Uranium ETFs URA and URNM produced more interesting technical signals for a potential reversal. Kaspi touched its 200-day moving average in both US sessions and is fighting to hold key technical levels.
Currency. On Friday, the dollar tried to break above its 200-day moving average. On Monday in FX markets, the pattern repeated, but the breakout again did not occur. This move coincided with the base rate cut from 16.25% to 15.75%, which reduces the interest-rate appeal of investments in the national currency. At the same time, the National Bank gave a restrained signal regarding further easing: the probability of a rate change by year-end is assessed as low.