Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 experienced a volatile session: by midday Eastern Time, the index reached an intraday low of 6,631 points, down 1.3% from the previous close, but the market later rose by the end of trading and ended in the neutral zone. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.2%, while the industrial Dow Jones gained 0.16%. In other regions, major indices closed lower — European markets fell 0.5–0.7%, reaching the lows of recent months.
This morning, a positive factor was the news that the U.S. Senate voted 60–40 to advance a bill ending the government shutdown; a group of moderate Democrats supported the potential deal despite the party leadership’s position. The end of the shutdown will provide investors with more clarity on key macro statistics — employment and inflation — which will help understand the Fed’s next steps.
Asian markets are rising: Hang Seng +1.6%, Nikkei 225 +1.3%, Kospi +3%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.75%. Brent crude is trading around $64 per barrel.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries fluctuated on Friday and closed at 4.09%.
KASE Index. The KASE index remains volatile, falling 1.1% in the last session. Current movements do not yet indicate a breakout of support levels around 6,900–6,930 points. This morning, external conditions have improved, but the index is still hesitant to move into positive territory.
Index Stocks. On Friday, Kazatomprom exerted the most pressure on the KASE index. GDRs fell 5.2%, which initially appears contrary to the uranium market, given that ETFs URA and URNM rose 1.3–1.4%, but previously Kazatomprom had corrected less than the sector and has now effectively “caught up” with industry benchmarks. KASE shares, down 3.8%, are currently trading 5.9% higher than GDRs in direct currency comparison. The second-largest decline was Kaspi, down 0.7%, but it remains in a downward trend. Today, the company will release its report at 18:00 Astana time, which could trigger growth. The earnings season is also starting for other issuers, potentially setting the tone for the market until year-end. At the opening of the new session, most quotes show moderate declines; Kaspi is rising the most (+1.5%), while Kazatomprom is down (-0.7%).
Currency. The tenge continues to strengthen, as the tax payment season is about to begin. However, a seasonal trend is observed: tenge strengthening often slows sharply after the actual start of tax payments on the 15th and virtually disappears after the 20th. Considering the potential formation of an upward divergence on the USDKZT chart, the dollar may start to rise in the third decade of the month.