Our comments and expectations
External background. Yesterday, the US market experienced its largest correction since March 13, with the S&P 500 index declining throughout the session, losing 1.1%. The relative calm in the market was disrupted by Trump's decree to impose a 25% tariff on cars imported into the US that are not made domestically. This expands the trade war aimed at supporting US industry and sets the stage for a larger-scale imposition of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. On the index map, the technology sector and major companies were in the negative. Tesla lost 5.6%, despite the potential to benefit from the new tariffs. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the inflationary impact of the tariffs might not be as temporary as expected, and secondary effects could lead regulators to keep rates at current levels for a longer period. Barclays lowered its target for the S&P 500 for 2025 from 6600 to 5900 points. According to Deutsche Bank, the liquidity of S&P 500 index futures is now at a two-year low. In Europe, the DAX fell similarly to the US index, while the Stoxx 600 showed more moderate losses. In the UK, inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.8% in February. In Turkey, markets have stabilized after the previous turmoil — the central bank promised to tighten measures if necessary, and Trump expressed support for Erdogan. In Asian markets, there is moderate growth in the morning — Chinese and Hong Kong indices are in the positive territory. China's People's Bank advisor Huang Yiping stated that the country is ready to intensify stimulus if economic growth loses momentum. Oil reached $74 per barrel and encountered resistance at the 50-day moving average.
Bonds. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose slightly to 4.35%. Corporate bonds decreased noticeably.
KASE Index. Despite the 0.4% decline in the index's quotes yesterday, the market remains in a sideways trend — the local support level is around 5570 points.
Index stocks. Today, investors are waiting for the report and conference call from Halyk Bank — the report may be published during the day, and the call will take place at 7:00 PM Astana time. The most important point for local investors will likely be the mention of dividends, as Halyk Bank's shares currently have the highest yield in the KASE index. Regarding other stocks, we observe a 3% decline in Air Astana’s GDRs on the LSE — however, the stock has still broken above the 50-day moving average, so the current pullback might be temporary. The downtrend continues in Kaspi.kz shares, which may be related to the company's expenses on acquisitions of a marketplace and a bank in Turkey, which is under pressure from protests.
Currency. The dollar is decreasing in the morning, falling below 500 tenge (497.7). At the same time, there is no similar dynamic from the ruble and the DXY dollar index.