Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The sell-off in chips resumed and pulled U.S. indices back from the highs reached the day before: the Nasdaq fell by about 1.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and the Dow Jones 0.25%, having managed to set a new all-time high during the session. The SOX semiconductor sector index dropped 5.5% under pressure from two factors at once: Samsung’s record quarterly profit (up 19x) still disappointed investors concerned about the scale of AI spending and the sustainability of demand, while a Reuters report that China’s DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip to compete with Nvidia added to jitters; Intel, Micron, and AMD declined noticeably. At the same time, the underlying rotation continued: most stocks in the S&P 500 rose, and defensive names (Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, Coca-Cola) supported the Dow. SpaceX shares fell by about 7% on the day of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. Oil rose sharply on fresh reports of attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz and on the U.S. decision to revoke a license that allowed Iran to sell oil. Government bond yields also increased noticeably. In Europe, indices mostly closed lower as the tech sell-off spread: Germany’s DAX fell more, while the UK’s tech-light FTSE 100 held up thanks to the oil & gas sector. This morning, the key event is the first minutes of the Fed’s June meeting under the new chair. The corporate earnings season is also kicking off, while Asian markets are mostly trading negatively (Japan, Korea).
KASE Index. The KASE Index closed with a neutral result for the second trading day in a row. At the same time, a number of stocks showed quite notable moves of more than 1%. Halyk Bank, Kazakhtelecom, and Air Astana were among the day’s leaders.
Index stocks. Halyk Bank shares rose 2.1% amid the continued rise of its GDRs in London. Yesterday the GDRs gained 0.8% and continue to follow the rebound scenario from the lower boundary of the channel and the 200-day moving average. The likelihood of further recovery in the shares increased noticeably after yesterday’s dynamics. Kazakhtelecom shares posted their largest daily gain since mid-March after a prolonged price decline. Nevertheless, yesterday’s rise did not break the local downtrend, and it is still too early to talk about a recovery in the shares. Air Astana, after yesterday’s increase, is ready to test the nearest local level at 670 tenge and has a decent chance of opening the way to the 690 tenge level. Among the day’s laggards, down 0.8–1%, we note BCC, Kazatomprom, Kcell, and KazTransOil. BCC approached horizontal support at 4500 tenge, as did Kcell to the 3200 tenge level. Kazatomprom narrowed its premium to the London price, while KazTransOil failed to test the local resistance level at 1170 tenge.
Currency. USDKZT continued to decline yesterday and reached the 470 tenge level. A move below 469 will likely mean another leg down to 464. The RUBKZT cross-rate remains at 6.15.