Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 index officially updated its historical highs once again, although the growth was minimal. In the US market, technology sector stocks stood out again, especially those of mega-cap companies. Mary Daly from the Fed stated that a rate cut this month is not certain but remains possible. Adriana Kugler expressed optimism about the economy, stating that inflation is likely on a steady path toward the central bank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, a Fed survey shows that optimism among American companies has risen to multi-year highs, thanks to Trump's business-oriented strategy. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose by 0.37% and broke its 50-day moving average. The French CAC40 held its position despite political tensions, although government bonds declined. In the Asian markets this morning, the indices of Japan and Hong Kong showed slight growth. A political drama unfolded in South Korea: President Yoon Suk-yeol imposed martial law for the first time in 44 years in an attempt to prevent the opposition from paralyzing his administration, but later revoked it under pressure from parliament. Protests erupted in the country against the sitting president, and the opposition Democratic Party stated that it would file for impeachment today. This morning, Kaspi is down by 1.6%, which is not critical overall. Oil prices have risen to $73.75. Israel has stated that it will expand its retaliatory measures if the ceasefire initiative with Hezbollah fails.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is bouncing off its 50-day moving average and showing an upward trend. JPMorgan reports that its clients have increased their long positions in Treasury bonds to the highest level in a year.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by 0.3%, updating historical highs for the fourth consecutive time. Over the last 7 trading sessions, only one session showed a small decrease of 3 points. On the remaining sessions, quotes showed stable growth ranging from 0.4% to 0.8% per day.
Index Stocks. Kazatomprom, previously the leader in growth, has given way to another exporter — KazMunaiGaz. KazMunaiGaz shares not only recovered losses since early September but also reached their highs. KMG shares grew by 1.9%, while Kazatomprom fell by 1.3% due to the exhaustion of the currency difference with GDRs, which had previously contributed to its growth. The financial results for the 9 months could be a new trigger for stock growth, as the uranium mining company showed significant revenue growth amid rising average selling prices. We have raised the target price of the shares from 24,600 to 26,600 tenge. The leader of growth was Air Astana, which completed its downtrend at 780 tenge and is now showing an upward dynamic. It is worth noting that such wave-like movement in stocks has been ongoing since August-September.
Currency. Yesterday, the US dollar reached 530 tenge on KASE. This morning, we are seeing the national currency strengthen to 522.9 per dollar, and we expect volatility to decrease by the end of the current month.