Our comments and expectations
External background. Over the weekend, the S&P 500 showed growth of 0.8% in the Kazakh market. At the same time, last week's results were the best since the beginning of the year, while the index was able to update historical highs for the 20th time in 2024. The trigger was the Fed meeting, where policymakers maintained their forecast for three cuts in 2024 and moved to slow the pace of their bond sales, assuming they were not alarmed by the recent rise in inflation. He also said it would be appropriate to start easing "at some point this year." In the week ending March 16, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 210,000 against a revised 212,000 last week and turned out to be better than market expectations of 215,000. Based on Bank of America data, fluctuations in the inflow and outflow of funds have been observed in the US market. So American equity funds lost about $22 billion in the week before Wednesday (March 20). This is the largest figure since December 2022. The trend also represents a sharp reversal from the previous week, when stocks attracted record inflows of funds. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 also once again updated historical highs, ending the 5th month of continuous growth. Asian markets showed a moderate result over the weekend, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1% when the Hang Seng closed neutrally. There was a slight correction in oil and copper in the commodity markets. Uranium quotations increased by 3.7%, showing the first wave of growth after a protracted correction.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield moved away from local highs after Powell's comments. Emerging markets looked good among corporate bonds, testing medium-term highs on the EMB ETF chart.
The KASE index. KASE grew by 0.5% at the end of the last working week. This did not change the local technical picture much, so it will be much more interesting to watch the session today. Since the opening of trading, quotations have been growing by 1%, and this can already be called a direct hint from the market for continued growth. On the 4-hour chart, the index has already left the overbought zone, although it is still in it on the daily chart. Nevertheless, this remains another additional potential growth factor.
Index shares. At the last session of last week, shares of Kcell and Kazatomprom looked good on the market. The shares of Air Astana became the leader, also giving hints of a reversal. These securities are growing by 1.3% from the opening today, which strengthens the positive hints. The paper ended its period of silence today, which can serve as an activation of investors. We will release our assessment soon. Kaspi ADS on NASDAQ reached $120, which gives +5% growth over the weekend on KASE. Despite the fact that the GDR on the LSE (no longer traded there) has reached noticeable resistance levels in recent sessions, we are still inclined to continue growth, but with a strong eye on a possible unsuccessful test of these levels.
Currency. In the foreign exchange market, there are no strong changes – USDKZT remains within the formed triangle around the 450 tenge per dollar mark. Key market news
(+) Banks: S&P improved forecast for five banks in Kazakhstan