Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 closed flat yesterday. Early in the session, quotes fell under the pressure of geopolitical news. Reports indicated that Ukraine used British Storm Shadow missiles and American ATACMS for the first time. Earlier, Russia expressed readiness to negotiate with Donald Trump on a potential ceasefire—a statement met with skepticism by Western officials. In the second half of the session, quotes recovered to the previous day's levels. However, Nvidia's earnings report, anticipated by investors after market close, failed to meet high expectations. The company’s revenue nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching a record $35.08 billion, while net profit stood at $19.31 billion. Nevertheless, results only slightly exceeded analysts' average forecasts. In post-market trading, Nvidia shares fell by 2.5%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 ended the day unchanged, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.3%. In October, the UK Consumer Price Index rose to 2.3%, exceeding forecasts, with the closely monitored services sector indicator increasing by 5% year-on-year. In the Eurozone, wages grew by 5.4% compared to last year, marking a record increase since the euro's introduction. Asian markets showed mixed performance this morning but without significant changes. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.41% yesterday. Reports indicated that the auction of 20-year bonds received a lukewarm reception, adding a cautious tone on Wall Street.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell by 0.4% yesterday, completing the formation of a bearish divergence on the daily chart. This could trigger a local market correction. However, we do not expect significant changes: a slight decline or sideways movement is more likely before potentially reaching new highs.
Index Stocks. The biggest drop was seen in Kcell shares, which fell by 1.5%. Quotes declined after hitting all-time highs of around 3,500 KZT per share. The largest gain was posted by Kcell’s major shareholder, Kazakhtelecom. The company’s shares demonstrated strong performance, gaining 8.4% since November 4 and reaching their highest levels since 2007. Moreover, since 2015, the shares have shown a steady long-term upward trend, particularly visible on a logarithmic chart. Kazatomprom fell by 0.7%, retreating from the highs reached on May 23 of this year. On the London Stock Exchange, the company’s GDRs gained 0.4%, reaching $41.45 during the session. A slow downward trend persists in KMG shares. Additionally, a local correction began in Air Astana shares: after six consecutive days of growth, the quotes have now been declining for the same number of sessions.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar closed at 496.3 KZT on Forex and 495.3 KZT on KASE. Today, over-the-counter trading opened at 495.8. On the DXY index chart, the dollar rose for the first time after three sessions of decline.