Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On the US market yesterday, the industrial Dow Jones fell by 0.94%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq rose by 0.16%. Major tech companies and some healthcare sector representatives were slightly up, whereas financials, industrials, and energy sectors declined. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of open job vacancies in November fell to the lowest level in over a year, but in December, service sector activity grew at the fastest pace in more than a year. According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 41,000 in December after a decline in the previous month. Oil fell 2.9% amid news of the resumption of Venezuelan oil supplies. Trump stated that the US plans to indefinitely control future Venezuelan oil sales and use the proceeds solely to purchase American-made goods. In Europe, the DAX rose another 1%, continuing its rally amid rising expectations of rate cuts due to weak economic data. In Asia, this morning Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 indices are down 1.7%. S&P 500 futures are losing 0.3%.
KASE Index. On Tuesday, the KASE index rose 0.6%. Usually, this is a decent result for the local market, but yesterday’s session saw quotations fail to reach historical highs. According to the daily candle, the index rose to 7,230 points, above the October 1 closing level (historical high), but seller pressure pushed the quotations down to 7,167 points. Additionally, increased trading volumes were noted for several securities.
Index Stocks. Kazatomprom shares led gains in the local market. Trading volumes surged to KZT 560 million, reaching highs not seen since July 17, 2025. However, according to the daily candle, active buying met equally active selling, likely related to profit-taking on the rising quotations. A similar situation was observed on the LSE: Tuesday’s session was volatile, with long shadows on the candle, and the key resistance level of $62.3 was not breached. Increased trading volumes were also observed in shares of Народный банк, Kaspi, and KMG. Among the stocks showing strong growth, KEGOC began to show a reversal — quotations have been declining for two sessions after reaching KZT 1,555. The rally continues in Kazakhtelecom shares, which still look attractive for speculative participation in the current wave of growth. Regarding new growth signals, Kaspi stands out — its ADS on Nasdaq rose 7% over two sessions, confidently breaking out of the local sideways trend. Among the stocks that may break resistance levels soon is Народный банк. As before, HSBK remains attractive for medium- and long-term investment. The probability of bullish breakouts is slightly lower for Kazatomprom and KazTransOil.
Currency. The dollar failed to hold above KZT 513 and showed moderate decline to KZT 509. Trading volatility is decreasing, moving the market into a calmer mode today.