Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 has started to move away from high volatility amid a slight easing of tensions following news of a delay. The main index rose by 0.8% yesterday, while the VIX fell to its lowest since April 4. On the other hand, the U.S. has launched investigations into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, which could lead to an escalation of the trade war initiated by Trump. Christopher Waller from the Fed stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation would be temporary, but still called the new trade policy “one of the biggest shocks” to the U.S. economy.
In the corporate sector, bank earnings season continues: Goldman Sachs traders posted their highest quarterly revenue in history, echoing results from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Nvidia announced plans to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the U.S. over the next four years.
In Europe and Asia, indexes showed strong performance: the Stoxx 600 and DAX rose by 2.7–2.9%, exceeding pre-opening futures expectations. Currently, futures are up 0.2% for Stoxx 600 and 0.4% for DAX. In Asia, Kospi and Nikkei 225 are trading slightly higher, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down 0.3%. China’s exports in March rose by 12.4% y/y, beating expectations. Oil is trading at around $65 per barrel this morning. JPMorgan lowered its 2025 forecast for Brent crude from $73 to $66. Gunvor stated that last week’s drop of global oil benchmarks below $60 was likely an overreaction. OPEC also revised down its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day, citing Trump’s tariffs.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.37% yesterday. Scott Bessent said there’s no evidence of a sell-off in U.S. government debt, while Japan emphasized it would not use U.S. Treasuries as leverage in negotiations.
KASE Index. The KASE index had a decent session yesterday, supported by an unexpected rise in Kcell shares. Today, quotes are up 1% at the open, which is a solid attempt to break out of the local consolidation phase.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, Kcell shares led the gains with a 12.2% jump. Preliminary data indicates the 2024 report was weak, making the trigger for the surge unclear. Notably, all our stocks on LSE and Nasdaq rose, except for Air Astana. Halyk Bank gained 5.3% and seems to be heading toward its $25.35 peak, although there’s limited time before the dividend cutoff (May 5). Kazatomprom rose by 4.8%, bouncing off the $30 support level. Meanwhile, the uranium sector’s ETFs showed slower gains compared to the previous day. This morning, BCC shares are showing decent growth but remain within a sideways trend.
Currency. USDKZT is trading below 517 today. The dollar’s movement over the past week is forming a pattern resembling a flag. Meanwhile, the tenge has stopped weakening against the euro.