Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4%, approaching its May 19 high of 5,963 points. At the start of the session, quotes declined amid macroeconomic data. Standout gainers on the index map included META (+3.6%), Broadcom (+2.7%), and Nvidia (+1.7%). According to ISM data, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, while the import index fell to a 16-year low. This intensified concerns over potential stagflation in the U.S. On the trade talks front, Howard Lutnick stated he is "very optimistic" about a deal between the U.S. and India. Regarding U.S.-China relations, the White House reported that a meeting between the two countries' leaders could take place this week. According to Trivium China, Beijing is strengthening its position in the standoff with Washington by increasing control over chip and rare-earth supply chains. Austan Goolsbee noted that the Fed may continue rate cuts if trade policy uncertainty is resolved. Investors now await the JOLTS job openings data, which is expected to show a decline in April vacancies. Factory orders are projected to fall by 3.2%. In Europe, indices ended the day with a modest decline of 0.1–0.3%. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by 1.4% this morning, despite China’s manufacturing sector experiencing the steepest contraction since September 2022: the Caixin PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April. The South Korean market remains neutral amid presidential elections. Commodities are retreating this morning after gains the previous day. Oil is trading at $64.7 per barrel.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.44%, while corporate bonds declined.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose slightly, breaking a streak of consecutive declines. Since May 22, the quotes have tested the 5,550-point level three times, rebounding upward each time.
Index Stocks. The market had a relatively quiet session yesterday. The biggest drop was in Kaspi shares, which fell by 1.8% despite a 3.8% gain on Nasdaq. The stock rebounded and held its level, though no new technical signals have emerged yet. This morning, Kazatomprom shares are up 1% for the second consecutive day, while Kcell shares are down 1.3%.
Currency. The dollar is trading at 512 tenge today, slightly below the resistance level. Yesterday, the National Bank announced plans to sell $700–800 million in June — a typical seasonal move for the currency market. In June 2023, sales dropped by 22% compared to the spring months, and in 2024 by 52%, likely due to lower market activity during this period. In addition, the National Bank plans to sell $417 million to mirror gold purchases and buy $250 million for the UAPF (Unified Accumulative Pension Fund). This implies net dollar sales of approximately $860–960 million. The regulator also stated it does not rule out raising the interest rate this year.