Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. S&P 500 declined by 0.6% yesterday, pulling back from the 7100 level it had recently surpassed. Investor sentiment remains dominated by prolonged uncertainty, as there has been no progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Vice President JD Vance was expected to travel to Pakistan to resume talks, but Tehran refused to participate, citing what it called unreasonable U.S. demands. This morning, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would refrain from further attacks and extend the truce with Iran indefinitely, blaming Tehran for the stalled negotiations. While this eased tensions slightly, key issues remain unresolved — the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with shipping still heavily constrained. David Solomon of Goldman Sachs warned that the risk of a U.S. recession could rise sharply depending on the administration’s response. European indices fell by 0.6–1%, failing to reach new highs. Asian markets are mostly up this morning, except for Hang Seng, which is down 1.4%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%. Oil is trading just below $98 per barrel. According to Vitol, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, full LNG production recovery could take up to five months.
KASE Index. The index rose 0.8% yesterday, reaching a new all-time high for the first time since March 3. Technically, this signals a breakout above key resistance levels. Trading volumes, while lower than Monday, remained elevated at nearly KZT 4 billion — the second-highest level over the past year. This combination typically signals bullish momentum, although confirmation at new levels remains important.
Index stocks. Most of the trading volume was concentrated in Bank CenterCredit and KazMunayGas, with KZT 1.3 billion and KZT 1.7 billion traded respectively, though prices remained largely unchanged. The main drivers were Kaspi.kz and Kazatomprom, which continued to rise following gains on international exchanges. Their GDRs and ADSs are currently in line with local prices, indicating limited FX upside and increasing dependence on trading dynamics on the LSE and Nasdaq. If global markets remain neutral, KASE may slow without support from these stocks. Notably, Kaspi ADS fell 3.2% yesterday, while Kazatomprom dropped intraday from $93.8 to $89 before closing higher.
Currency. USDKZT broke below the 463 support level this morning, increasing the likelihood of a move toward 455.