Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, renewing its all-time highs. The main growth again came from tech stocks, but this time major index components such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, and Oracle also contributed. AMD shares jumped another 11.3%. In the absence of key macroeconomic data, investors focused on the latest Federal Reserve minutes, where officials expressed readiness to continue rate cuts later this year, while some showed caution due to inflation concerns.
In Europe, markets also posted solid gains — Stoxx 600, DAX, and FTSE 100 all reached new record highs. In Asia, both Chinese and Japanese markets are showing strong upward momentum. Gold hit $4,070 yesterday but edged slightly lower today following Trump’s statement that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of a peace agreement. Oil prices remain stable, trading at $66.3 per barrel.
KASE Index. The KASE index declined by another 0.6% yesterday, marking its fifth straight losing session. Prices have fallen close to the September 17 lows, aligning with the lower boundary of the sideways channel. This area offers potential for a short-term rebound, as the index may attempt to recover from these levels.
Index Stocks. Signals for potential growth in the KASE index may come from certain stocks. For example, Kaspi shares have been declining for a while and have now reached their lowest level since August 1 — a possible support area. We also observe a correlation between the KASE chart and the USDKZT pair: the dollar has weakened for six consecutive sessions and may complete its corrective wave today, which could support equities. Against this backdrop, exporters such as KazMunayGas and Kazatomprom may benefit and contribute to a local index recovery.
However, it’s important to note that this outlook is more of a reflection on when the current downtrend might end for KASE and its components rather than a declaration of strong long-term growth signals. For the latter, we would need to see breakouts above key resistance levels.
As for market performance, the biggest surprise yesterday came from Halyk Bank, which led the declines on KASE, although no similar movement was seen on the LSE. Air Astana shares fell further following news that Peter Foster will step down from the company in March next year. Kazatomprom rose 1.5% on the LSE but showed a 1.1% pullback in premarket trading today. Locally, the market opened sluggishly, with KazMunayGas showing the strongest gains.
Currency. The U.S. dollar is strengthening today, potentially ending its six-day losing streak. The USDKZT pair is trading at 541.7 KZT. On international markets, the DXY dollar index has been climbing for the fourth consecutive session, reaching levels last seen on August 1.