External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower. While the broader market advanced, semiconductor makers’ shares fell after some of Nvidia’s largest customers received notices of price increases of more than 15% for AI-related products. Notable news was a report that the U.S. Treasury may use part of its cash from the general account, totaling about $1 trillion, to finance an expanded buyback of higher-yielding and older securities. Fed’s Kashkari downplayed concerns about rising Treasury yields, saying markets are functioning normally. Meanwhile, Trump pledged to double tariffs on Canadian cars and auto components starting next year after talks collapsed on Friday. Scott Bessent, in turn, threatened economic sanctions against countries doing business with Iran as the U.S. seeks to tighten Tehran’s isolation. This campaign risks a clash with China, which buys about 90% of Iran’s oil. This morning, sentiment in Asia is moderately positive. Oil is trading slightly below $90 per barrel. Morgan Stanley raised its Q4 Brent price forecast to $100 from $75, citing a slower recovery in Middle East supply. Gold reached $4700 per ounce, and Citi raised its three-month target to $4800 amid increased buyback volumes of long-dated U.S. Treasuries.
KASE Index. KASE closed flat yesterday: the dividend-related drop in People’s Bank shares was offset by gains in Kazatomprom and Kaspi.
Index stocks. HSBK shares slightly reduced the magnitude of the drop and closed down 5.3%. At today’s open, quotes are stable, which may indicate the situation is stabilizing. The biggest gain yesterday was in Kazatomprom: on the local market the shares jumped 3.3%, and the GDRs rose 1.9%. From a technical standpoint, there are still no positive shifts — quotes are merely recouping losses incurred on August 19–20. Meanwhile, uranium prices continue to rise and have almost reached $90 per pound on the front-month futures contract. Kaspi rose 0.9% yesterday on Nasdaq. The session high was $107.9, which, in our view, corresponds to the upper boundary of the channel. However, if the channel boundary is drawn from the April 20 high, the local target shifts to $110.6 per ADS, where a Fibonacci level also lies. For our part, we want to caution that technical constraints and signs of overbought conditions are building in the quotes, so in the near term, in the $107–110 range, a correction or pause in the rally may occur. Solidcore shares fell 2.4% yesterday, likely due to local profit-taking. However, the news backdrop around gold remains positive, and calls to buy the asset from well-known traders and investment firms are being heard more and more often.
FX. The dollar is stabilizing slightly above the support level around 455 tenge. This morning, USDKZT is trading at 457.8 tenge, DXY is slowly rising, and the ruble has started weakening against the dollar again.