Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 declined at the start of the session but quickly recovered and remained at a neutral level by the close. Positive sentiment was reportedly supported by a protocol being developed by Iran and Oman to monitor ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that the system would require ship owners to pay duties. However, media outlets note that the strait is considered international waters, and any attempt by Iran to control this traffic could face resistance from oil producers and their clients. Among corporate news, Tesla shares declined after the company reported one of its weakest quarterly sales performances in recent years. Shares of asset manager Blue Owl also fell, pointing to potential issues in the private credit segment in the United States. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined during the week ending March 28. At the same time, a private report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a 25% increase in job cut announcements in March. The U.S. labor market report (nonfarm payrolls) will be released today, although most Western exchanges will be closed. This morning, Asian markets are rising, with Nikkei 225 and Kospi up by 1.3–2.7%. China’s mainland CSI 300 index is showing a slight decline. Futures on the S&P 500 are down by 0.15%.
KASE Index. KASE declined by 0.5% yesterday, mainly due to stocks sensitive to external factors. Nevertheless, the dynamics still indicate ongoing market consolidation.
Index stocks. Most stocks declined yesterday, reacting negatively to rising oil prices both directly and indirectly. Air Astana shares fell by 3.1% due to higher fuel prices. Kazatomprom and Kaspi shares declined by 1.7%, reflecting negative sentiment from the U.S. market linked to rising inflation amid higher oil prices. However, Kaspi ADS on Nasdaq showed gains yesterday. Notably, quotations have recently stopped declining locally and have moved into a sideways trend, although on a broader horizon they remain below a downward trendline. Kazatomprom GDRs declined by 1.2% but also remain within a sideways consolidation range. At today’s market opening, both stocks are showing gains of 1.2–1.4%.
Currency. The dollar is showing a slight decline of 0.1% against the tenge today. Given the continued uncertainty in the market, our forecast until the end of April will rely primarily on technical analysis, where the picture currently appears clearer. USDKZT quotations remain within a downward trend, and a breakout of this trend is unlikely within the next month. However, a transition into a sideways range with a potential rise toward 480–483 tenge is quite possible. In our view, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, restoring supply flows and infrastructure will take time, which may slow the decline in oil prices. It is worth noting that support is present at 470.9, while USDKZT quotations have entered the oversold zone according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If this level is broken, the next level is around 464.4 tenge.